【Thyssenkrupp Takes Europe’s Largest Blast Furnace Offline for Six-Week Refurbishment】

Today, the most-traded HRC contract rose first then fell, closing at 3,365, down 0.74% WoW. HRC spot prices edged down 10-20 yuan/mt, while CRC prices remained stable. Supply side, this week's HRC impact from maintenance was 95,100 mt, down 151,500 mt WoW. Next week's HRC impact from maintenance is expected at 51,900 mt, down 43,200 mt WoW, with overall supply growth relatively small. Demand side, during the seasonal transition, end-use demand has yet to show a significant increase. Futures prices fell too quickly, leaving end-users with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Cost side, the fourth round of coke price hikes is still brewing, but futures rose too fast, prompting some capital to take profits. After shooting up in early trading, prices plunged, weakening cost support. Overall, short-term HRC prices continue to follow cost-side trends. Close attention should be paid to actual supply conditions for coking coal and coke, as well as steel mills' acceptance of coke price hikes. The most-traded HRC contract is likely to remain volatile in the near term.

Russian coal exports to India declined 2% year on year to 14.5 Mt in the first half of 2026, a reduction of 0.3 Mt. India’s total coal imports fell by a sharper 9.4% to 118.9 Mt, down 12.4 Mt. Because Russian volumes declined more slowly than the overall Indian import market, Russia’s share increased by 0.9 percentage points to 12.2%. Performance among major suppliers was mixed. Indonesian shipments to India fell 17.4% to 42.8 Mt, South African volumes declined 14.1% to 16.4 Mt, and Australian shipments edged down 0.6% to 16.7 Mt. US deliveries, meanwhile, increased 9.1% to 13.2 Mt. The figures indicate that India’s overall import demand contracted, while Russian coal relatively maintained its position within the smaller market.