The US Fed's September rate hike is rapidly shifting from a fringe expectation to a risk the market must confront head-on.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's recent hawkish remarks on inflation and monetary policy have triggered a repricing in the interest rate market. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, bets on a rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting briefly surged to 66.1%, nearly double the level before Warsh's speech. Swap data compiled by Bloomberg also show the probability of a hike has risen to around 60%, and the market is even beginning to price in the possibility of at least one more hike over the coming year.
Societe Generale further expects the US Fed may raise rates by 25 basis points each in September and December of this year, as well as in March 2027. Morgan Stanley cautions that beyond rate hikes, Warsh's stance on balance sheet reduction also warrants attention, as the Fed could launch a balance sheet runoff exceeding $1.5 trillion next year.
From interest rates to the US dollar, from Treasuries to gold, and on to global equities, a new round of asset repricing may already be underway.
With the market suddenly shifting, what should investors really be watching?
The problem is that Wall Street has not formed a consensus.
Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst believes the market may have overreacted to Warsh's remarks. Recent data show US inflation has cooled somewhat and job growth is slowing, making it still quite difficult to reach a consensus on a rate hike at the September meeting.
Going forward, the US will release key data including employment, CPI, and PPI. If employment continues to weaken and inflation pulls back further, the currently heating-up rate hike expectations could easily reverse once again.
This is also the hardest part of the current market to assess: it is not a lack of information, but rather that different pieces of information are pointing in different directions.
To hike or not to hike? Can the US dollar continue to strengthen? Will Treasury yields keep rising? Will the logic behind gold's elevated levels change? And how will equities respond to renewed upward pressure on interest rates?
To answer these questions, focusing on just one asset class is far from sufficient.
On September 4 in Shanghai, examine equities, bonds, currencies, and gold together
As global markets enter this critical window,on September 4, 2026, the "Navigating Change, Envisioning the Future—2026 Cross-Market Asset Allocation Annual Forum (Shanghai)" will be held in Shanghai, hosted by FX168 Finance Group and supported by 6i Group and Guotong Trust.
The forum will start from the global macro picture and span equities, bonds, currencies, gold, and wealth management, with a focus on how global assets will be repriced in the next phase after policy expectations shift.
Jiang Tai, Chairman and CEO of FX168 Finance Group, will deliver a keynote on "Global Macro and Market Mainlines,"combining current interest rates, inflation, the US dollar, Treasuries, and global capital flows to sort out the core variables shaping market trends in the next phase.
The forum will also feature sessions on"Cracking the Martin Deadlock: Building and Applying Low-Risk EA Strategies," "Multi-Asset, Multi-Strategy: Allocation Solutions for a Low-Rate Era," and "Family Trust Practice Under CRS 2.0"and other topics.
The subsequentpanel discussion, "Insight into Change, Unity of Knowledge and Action—From Macro Judgment to Asset Allocation and Strategy Building,"will further explore a more practical question: when macro judgments shift, how can those judgments be truly translated into strategies while managing risk effectively.
Why now?
Only about two weeks remain until the Fed's September FOMC meeting.
During this period, any changes in employment, inflation, or Fed policy expectations could quickly transmit to Treasury yields, the US dollar, gold, and global equities.
What the market needs most may no longer be more fragmented information, but rather a framework that connects macro conditions, interest rates, capital flows, and different asset classes.
September 4, Shanghai.
"Navigating Change, Envisioning the Future—2026 Cross-Market Asset Allocation Annual Forum (Shanghai)" brings you face-to-face with market guests and professionals, from macro to markets, from assets to strategies, to find the next mainline in a complex market.
Event Agenda
13:30–14:00 Check-in
14:00–14:05 Opening Ceremony
14:05–15:05 Keynote Speech: Global Macro and Market Main Themes
15:05–15:50 Cracking the Martin Achilles' Heel: Building and Practicing Low-Risk EA Strategies
15:50–16:10 Guotong Trust Multi-Asset, Multi-Strategy: Allocation Solutions in a Low-Interest-Rate Era
16:10–16:40 Family Trust Practice under CRS 2.0
16:40–17:10 Panel Discussion: Insight into Changes, Unity of Knowledge and Action—From Macro Judgment to Asset Allocation and Strategy Construction
17:10–17:30 Tea Break & Free Networking
Risk Warning:This event is intended for information exchange and knowledge sharing related to macroeconomic, financial market, and asset allocation topics. The content does not constitute investment consulting, investment advice, trading advice, product recommendations, or return commitments for any individual. Financial markets involve risks, and past performance does not represent future results.
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