SMM, September 1:
The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2610 contract closed at 24,110 yuan/mt today, up 150 yuan on the day, a gain of 0.63%. Trading volume was 135,186 lots, and open interest was 248,598 lots, up 71 lots on the day. Open interest edged up slightly, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts becoming more balanced. Prices held above the 5-day, 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages. Short-term bearish pressure continued to ease, and the upward consolidation pattern extended. After wild swings during the day, the contract closed higher, with moderate buying interest from bulls at lower levels. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages turned upward, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages remained downward, indicating that the medium-term downward trend has not been fully reversed. The previous high range above forms strong medium and long-term resistance, constraining upside room for a rebound, while multiple short-term moving averages below provide solid support at lower levels. The DIF and DEA lines are both above the zero axis, with DIF above DEA. The MACD red bars continued, and bullish momentum kept releasing, sustaining the short-term rebound pace.
SMM commentary: On the macro front, the Jackson Hole central bank symposium sent hawkish signals. Fed Chairman Warsh's debut remarks leaned hawkish, and ECB officials leaned toward a September rate hike. Expectations of tightening global liquidity intensified, weighing on macro sentiment and exerting bearish pressure on aluminum prices. However, continued destocking in China and the approaching "September peak season" expectations provided strong support below aluminum prices. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, aluminum prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs.
The most-traded alumina 2610 contract closed at 2,693 yuan/mt today, up 9 yuan on the day, a gain of 0.34%. Trading volume was 134,185 lots, and open interest was 144,292 lots, down 9,878 lots MoM, as profit-taking positions were reduced during the rebound. Prices held above the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving averages but remained below the 60-day moving average. After the oversold decline, the short-term rebound repair continued, with buying interest from bulls at lower levels strengthening somewhat. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages remained downward, and the medium-term downward drift has not been reversed. The 60-day moving average above forms strong medium and long-term resistance, constraining upside room for the rebound. The DIF and DEA lines are both below the zero axis, and the MACD red bars continued, with short-term rebound momentum continuing to release.
SMM commentary: The alumina market continues to show a supply-strong, demand-weak pattern, with prices drifting lower and overall market sentiment bearish. On the supply side, production continued to recover. Recent domestic production increased MoM, with Guangxi continuing to ramp up output. Combined with production resumptions in Shanxi this month and new capacity in Guangxi about to be released, supply growth expectations continued to pressure prices. In markets outside China, the previous supply mismatch logic weakened, and prices outside China also pulled back. Net imports in July decreased MoM, easing import pressure on the Chinese market to some extent. On the inventory side, the inventory buildup trend continued. Aluminum smelters restocked moderately at low prices, port inventory climbed to historical highs, and plant inventory also rose with production increases, while warrants and in-transit inventory saw some destocking. Looking ahead, supply-side pressure is only increasing, and prices still have room to drift lower. The inventory buildup trend is expected to continue.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
