Base metals broadly rose, SHFE zinc broke above 27,000! LME tin and zinc led gains, SHFE silver and palladium fell over 2% [SMM Midday Commentary]

SMM September 1 news:

In the metals market:

As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.7%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.63%. SHFE lead fell 0.86%. SHFE zinc rose 2.68%, hitting a new high of 27,165 yuan/mt since May 2022 during the session. SHFE tin rose 1%. SHFE nickel rose 0.6%.

In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.64%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.76%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.28%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 2.06%.

Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.54%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%. Stainless steel fell 0.79%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.06%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.09%.

In overseas base metals, as of 11:43, LME metals all rose. LME zinc rose 2.29%, hitting a new high of $3,980.5/mt since May 2022 during the session. LME copper rose 0.71%, and LME aluminum rose 0.83%. LME lead rose 0.24%. LME tin rose 1.6%. LME nickel rose 0.6%.

In precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold rose 0.06%, and COMEX silver rose 0.42%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.76%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.36%.

In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.04%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 2.84%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping line container freight futures contract fell 5.93% to 1,786 points.

As of 11:43 on September 1, some futures midday quotes:

Spot and fundamentals

Zinc: In the Tianjin market, mainstream #0 zinc ingot traded at 26,760-27,110 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 27,050-27,310 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded near 26,830-27,050 yuan/mt, Zijin was quoted at a premium of 100-150 yuan/mt against the 2610 contract, Huxin was quoted at 28,250 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 50-160 yuan/mt against the 2610 contract, and the Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market...

Macro front

Domestic:

[China's August RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, a two-month high] On September 1, S&P Global and RatingDog jointly released China's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), showing that the RatingDog China manufacturing PMI recorded 51.5 in August, up 0.6 percentage points from 50.9 in July, a two-month high and the ninth consecutive month above the 50 mark, the longest expansionary streak in nearly five years. New orders rose for the 15th consecutive month, the longest streak of growth since 2018, with new export orders growing at the fastest pace in six months . (Wall Street CN)

[China's installed PV power generation capacity historically surpasses coal power, becoming the largest power supply category by installed capacity] As of end-July this year, China's installed PV power generation capacity reached 1.286 billion kW, including 704 million kW of centralized PV and 582 million kW of distributed PV. PV power generation installed capacity exceeded coal power for the first time, becoming China's largest power supply category by installed capacity. (Coal power installed capacity: 1.285 billion kW) (National Energy Administration)

PBOC: Today, it conducted a 5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation, with a bid amount of 5 billion yuan, an awarded amount of 5 billion yuan, and an operation rate of 1.40%. At the same time, it conducted a 359 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. (Jin10 Data APP)

US dollar:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 99.5. US President Trump, in an interview at the White House on Monday local time, talked about interest rates: "Rates are currently too high. I have great respect for Fed Chairman Warsh, and he will do what he has to do." (Jin10 Data APP)

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he and Fed Chairman Warsh see eye to eye on bonds, and said that since US President Trump took office, the 10-year Treasury yield has been basically flat. Bessent stressed that he has never said he was trying to change the direction of the bond market, and also believes the government cannot change the equilibrium price of bonds, and would not speculate on the Fed's next possible move. He said core inflation remains relatively mild, and the Fed traditionally does not raise rates when hit by supply shocks. Bessent also revealed that he has not bought any bonds yet and is working with Budget Director Vought on a fiscal consolidation plan. He said the US could become the world's top bond market due to a bond buyback program, and said hedge fund managers like to "speed up the process." Regarding investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who recently criticized the US Treasury's bond buyback policy, Bessent said he spoke with him after his column was published, and said "I think Druckenmiller lost money on the day he published that op-ed." In addition, Bessent noted that Fitch has reaffirmed the US credit rating. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 34.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 65.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 25.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.4%. (Jin10 Data APP)

Data:

Today will see the release of the UK August Nationwide house price index m/m, Switzerland July real retail sales y/y, France August manufacturing PMI final, Germany August manufacturing PMI final, France August manufacturing PMI final, Germany August manufacturing PMI final, eurozone August manufacturing PMI final, UK August manufacturing PMI final, UK July central bank mortgage approvals, eurozone August CPI y/y preliminary, eurozone August CPI m/m preliminary, eurozone July unemployment rate, US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US August ISM manufacturing PMI, US July JOLTs job openings, US July construction spending m/m, and other data.

In addition, attention should be paid to: Fed Governor Barr's speech on "Economic Outlook and Financial Inclusion"; the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, held through September 1; and the 2026 SCO Heads of State Council Meeting.

Crude oil:

As of 11:43, oil prices on both exchanges rose, with WTI crude up 1.03% and Brent crude up 0.72%. Concerns over supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict supported oil prices.

According to data released today (September 1) by international market service provider Kepler, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz area on August 31 was relatively unchanged from last weekend, holding at around 5, below the "10-day average" of about 14. None of the 5 vessels were oil tankers. Four entered the strait, including one empty small natural gas carrier and three fully loaded dry bulk carriers. Transiting vessels that did not turn on their transponders were not included in the count. (CCTV International News)

In addition, according to foreign media citing two US officials, US oil company North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) will take over some oil fields previously controlled by a Russian company and five other international companies. Officials said the acquisition will be part of a comprehensive oil production agreement announced by President Trump and Venezuela. According to official sources, these projects are part of 14 contracts newly awarded to NABEP. NABEP was previously owned by US oil magnate Harry Sargeant and is now controlled by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. In addition, as the Trump administration seeks to reshape Venezuela's oil industry and bring its vast oil reserves into US economic and geopolitical interests, the arrangement also gives Washington a direct say in determining the production and sale of Venezuelan oil.

Spot market overview:

►

►

►

►

Midday comments on other metals spot will be updated later, please refresh to view~