Hawkish Signals Combined with Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts, Silver Prices Pull Back Under Pressure [SMM Daily Review]

Published: Aug 31, 2026 10:29

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[SMM Daily Review: Hawkish Signals Combined with Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts Put Silver Prices Under Pressure and Trigger a Pullback] SMM, August 31 – The Jackson Hole meeting released hawkish signals, the probability of a September rate hike surged, and the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, putting precious metals under dual pressure. Spot market trading was sluggish at month-end, with transactions holding near parity.

Today, SMM's 10:00 price for the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Ag(T+D) was 16,162 yuan/kg, with premium/discount quotes ranging from TD-5 to +5 yuan/kg and a weighted average of -0.1 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, at the Jackson Hole conference, Warsh delivered a hawkish speech. With Fed officials Hammack and Goolsbee also turning hawkish, market pricing for the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to around 60%. The US dollar index posted its biggest one-day gain in two and a half months. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4.7 bp, the 2-year yield surged 12.2 bp, and gold prices plunged 3.22% last Friday. Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict escalated sharply. US forces struck military facilities on Larak Island in southern Iran, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated by firing missiles at a US military base in Jordan. At Monday's open, WTI surged more than 2% to hit $85.69/bbl, and Brent crude jumped above $90. Precious metals faced dual bearish pressure. This week, prices are expected to fluctuate and pull back, with the market awaiting guidance from Friday's non-farm payrolls data.

In the spot market, offers today were concentrated at TD-5 to +5 yuan/kg. At month-end, suppliers' willingness to sell was weak, and some enterprises that had cleared inventory suspended offers. The spot-futures price spread continued to narrow. Low-priced cargoes were hard to find in the market, actual transactions were sluggish, and sentiment among both buyers and sellers was weak. In the Shanghai region, early morning offers were mainly near parity. Transactions in standard silver ingots were concentrated around TD-5 yuan/kg, and the trading atmosphere was mediocre. Today, the premium/discount quote against the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract was a discount of 45 to 35 yuan/kg.

Overall, precious metals are likely to consolidate on a weak note in the near term. Rate hike expectations are heating up, and the probability of an overall pullback is relatively high. In the spot market, selling sentiment was weak at month-end, low-priced cargoes were scarce, and offers remained near parity.

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