Expected Arrivals to Increase, Circulating Supply Slightly Oversupplied [SMM South China Spot Aluminum Daily Review]

SMM News on August 28:

Futures edged down today, and South China spot cargo remained weak. Although inventory was still on a destocking track, the market had already priced in expectations that northern supply was about to arrive in larger volumes, and the marginal support from low inventory for premiums was weakening. With the weekend coinciding with the month-end period, both the outright price and premiums were at high levels, prompting holders to proactively increase concessions and accelerate cashing out and exiting during the dual-high window. Supply emerged in volume, and circulation appeared slightly oversupplied. Demand side, downstream maintained a steady, rigid procurement pace and could still provide some bottom support; however, flexible buying such as proactive inventory building was nearly absent. Traders were also shrouded in bearish sentiment, focusing mainly on pushing for lower prices and buying on dips, further weighing on the market. The contradiction of strong supply and weak demand was pronounced, and intraday trading was lackluster. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at a premium of 180 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2609 contract.