Wafer Trends Diverge, Solar Cells Pull Back Under Pressure, Film Stagnant and Wait-and-See [SMM Silicon PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM August 25 News:

Wafer

Price: The market price for 18X wafers was 1.115-1.135 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers was 1.126-1.153 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers was 1.18-1.255 yuan/piece. The overall wafer market diverged, with 210R and 210N wafer prices experiencing a pullback, while 183 prices held supported by overseas cell demand. Going forward, attention should be paid to raw material price trends and policy expectations.

Production: According to the latest SMM survey feedback, August production decreased by 1-2 GW MoM. Although production cuts have been in place for two consecutive months, overall production remained relatively high relative to demand. This month, most 210 production lines began switching to 183, with slicing capacity nearly fully utilized, and there was even a case of directly cutting 210 ingots into 183, with leftover material recycled—highlighting the severity of the 183 supply shortage.

Inventory: Silicon wafer enterprise inventory buildup showed diverging trends. Top-tier players' inventory already exceeded a reasonable range. India began stockpiling successively, while demand for P-type 18X orders surged. In addition, re-export demand also increased, with several African countries ranking among top export destinations.

Solar cell

Price: Prices across sizes continued to diverge. 210R remained unchanged, with the transaction center at 0.35 Yuan/W and transaction range at 0.333-0.355 Yuan/W; 183 quotation range narrowed to 0.327-0.353 Yuan/W, with the center slightly loosening; 210N, dragged by insufficient high-price firm orders, saw its price range move down to 0.320-0.332 Yuan/W. Market sentiment gradually turned cautious, with multiple major producers reporting slower shipments on trader orders, and some producers already plan to cut quotations. Downstream purchasing wait-and-see sentiment heated up, and short-term prices may maintain a weak consolidation pattern.

Production: August industry production schedule pulled back from July, but was revised up from earlier bearish market expectations. Driven by continuous recovery of export orders, some enterprises' plans to increase or cut production are still being dynamically adjusted. The final actual supply level awaits further confirmation with individual plants, overall manifesting the characteristic of "lower than July but higher than earlier expectations."

Inventory: As the benefits of the US Section 232 policy continue to be released, although export orders maintained a certain volume, they notably pulled back WoW. Combined with traders' weakened purchase willingness, solar cell inventory continued to be drawn down this week, but the drawdown pace clearly slowed WoW. Inventory levels remained relatively low, still providing fundamental support to futures, but the support intensity is weakening marginally.

PV film

Price

PV-grade EVA:

Currently, the mainstream spot transaction range for PV-grade EVA resin in China is 10,100-10,350 yuan/mt. EVA resin prices moved sideways. Recently, ethylene prices edged up, while vinyl acetate pulled back slightly. The divergence in raw material prices has not yet formed a clear driver for the EVA market. Supply side, the market continues to watch the commissioning progress and production schedules of top petrochemical plants. The pace of new supply release in the short term remains uncertain. Overall, short-term PV-grade EVA resin prices continue to consolidate steadily. Today, close attention should be paid to the pricing result of the weekly settlement price from top petrochemical plants.

PV film:

Currently, the price of 420 g/m² transparent EVA film is 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and the price of 380 g/m² EPE film is 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². Film prices remain stable overall. This week, the film market is about to start a new round of monthly price negotiations. Recently, upstream EVA resin prices have been temporarily stable, causing no significant disturbance to the film cost side. It is expected that the overall fluctuation in film pricing this month will be limited, and prices are likely to find it difficult to rise.

Production: Boosted by the restart of PV-grade material production at some plants, PV-grade EVA production rebounded slightly this week; the film production schedule for August pulled back slightly compared to the early-month expectations.

Inventory: Currently, petrochemical plants have low inventories, and available spot cargo in the market is relatively scarce; film plants' inventories are in a reasonable and controllable range.