August 25 Morning Meeting Minutes
Market Hot Topic:
On August 21, Philippine President Marcos signed Executive OrderNo. 122 (EO 122) to establish a unified policy framework for the development of critical minerals industry, promoting mineral exploration, development, processing, and utilization, and encouraging investment in high value-added downstream industries.The policy will accelerate and digitalize mining permit issuance, while providing investment incentives for downstream refining, battery production, and related industries. Domestic processing enterprises will have priority access to ore supply, and the governmenthas identified at least9 million hectares of areas with mineral potential.Nickel is one of the Philippines' major mineral resources. This policyis expected to drive Philippine nickel resources from raw ore exports toward local processingand downstream industry chain extension, enhancing nickel industry value addedin thelong term.
Macro:
(1) Trump:Solving the $4trillion US debt problem relies on growth, with no instructions for Bessent to intervene in the bond market.
(2) Iran's Parliamentary Committee approved charging service fees to vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the bill yet to be voted on by the full parliament; Iranian media reported that Iran has decided to allow some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Spot Market:
On August24, SMM#1 refined nickel averaged 131,450yuan/mt, up1,850yuan/mt from the previous trading day.Spot premiums: Jinchuan#1 refined nickel averaged 1,550yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -100to500yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract(2609)strengthened in early trading, closing the morning session at 129,910yuan/mt, down0.63%.
Expectations of release of Indonesia quota supply and high inventory exert downward pressure, but a weaker US dollar and cost support provide a floor.In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price is expected to trade in the range of127,000-132,000yuan/mt.
Nickel Sulphate
On August24, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged up.
Cost side, strong precious metals performance spill over into non-ferrous metals sector; undervalued nickek prices surged and then pulled back, pushing up the immediate production cost of nickel sulphate slightly.Supply side, as costs remain high, some producers are inclined to hold prices firm, while others with relatively high inventory levels seek to sell for destocking.Demand side, recently some downstream enterprises mainly rely on long-term contractsfor supply, with weak sentiment for building inventory via spot orders and relatively low acceptance of nickel salt prices.As of today, the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor for upstream nickel salt smelter is2.0, the Procurement Sentiment Factor for downstream precursor plants is2.3, and the Sentiment Factor for integrated enterprises is2.3 (historical data available via database login).
Looking ahead, the short-term spot order market activity was weak, and nickel sulphate prices remained under pressure overall.
NPI
August 24 news, SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 1.86, up 0.02 MoM; high-grade NPI upstream sentiment factor was 2.01, up 0.03 MoM; high-grade NPI downstream sentiment factor was 1.7, flat MoM. The high-grade NPI market overall remained in a mediocre pattern, with spot transaction activity weak. Some upstream pig iron plants kept their quotes firm, but low prices in the market trended lower, and internal quote divergence further emerged. The industry chain itself lacked substantial upward drivers, and market participants' wait-and-see sentiment intensified, with some traders choosing to suspend quotes awaiting clearer direction. The performance of NPI and refined nickel diverged, with refined nickel seeing a rebound, but the NPI side was under pressure from production recovery expectations, and downstream held a bearish view on the outlook. Purchase willingness of downstream steel mills did not show a significant recovery, with the mainstream mainly inquiring and observing, and active purchase actions limited; suppliers' quotes consolidated within a range, mostly negotiated on an average price basis, while firm fixed-price orders remained scarce.
Stainless steel
According to SMM on August 24, the SS futures consolidated on a weak note, continuing the weakening trend from last week, and overall moved with limited fluctuation. By the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,215 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the decline in SS futures gradually eased, and SHFE nickel saw a tentative upward movement, combined with the pre-peak season boosting market confidence recovery, and as spot prices were at lows, intraday transaction activity recovered.
The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15, SS2610 was reported at 14,260 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 410-610 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled uncut edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi rose 25 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat.
The stainless steel futures overall consolidated at lows this week. Previously impacted by news of increased quotas for Indonesian RKAB nickel ore, SS futures slumped sharply, and overall market valuation fell to a low range; this week, driven by the overall recovery of non-ferrous metals, futures saw a phased repair rebound, but the previous bearish sentiment had not completely dissipated, and the rebound strength of futures was weak, still consolidating at lows, with insufficient recovery of bull confidence. The spot market followed futures, operating in the doldrums, with the price center moving down slightly; the pre-peak season warm-up fell short of expectations, and the loose supply-demand pattern continued to stand out. The market is now approaching the traditional peak consumption season of September-October, but terminal stockpiling sentiment ahead of the season is sluggish, downstream demand has not shown a substantial recovery, and on-site transactions remain weak, primarily driven by rigid demand for spot purchases and periodic sporadic orders, lacking sustained centralized restocking support. Affected by the low trading range of futures, market pessimism persists, coupled with a slight easing of steel mills' willingness to hold prices firm, spot prices have pulled back accordingly, and the market price center has continued to decline. Supply-side pressure has further increased, with steel mills' production schedule for August rising MoM and the pace of capacity release accelerating. Against the backdrop of a mismatch with persistently weak end-use demand, the pressure to destock market inventories continues to intensify, pushing social inventory of stainless steel higher this week, with inventory buildup continuing. The supply-demand surplus contradiction in the late off-season is becoming more pronounced. On the cost and profit side, a bottom support has formed, effectively limiting the downside room for spot prices. This week, stainless steel finished products and raw material prices both pulled back, but the decline in finished product prices was significantly larger than that in raw materials. The price spread between finished products and raw materials has continued to narrow, further compressing steel mill smelting profits. The industry is now approaching the edge of losses. Cost support has gradually strengthened, providing a hard floor for spot prices, limiting the downside room for spot prices, and the market is showing a weak but resilient characteristic. Overall, the stainless steel market this week has presented a tug-of-war pattern: low-level weak recovery in futures, spot prices declining in line with futures, weak pre-season demand, inventory buildup from rising supply, and cost support near loss-making levels acting as a price floor. In the short term, the lack of pre-season stocking demand, rising steel mill production schedules, and continued inventory buildup constitute the core bearish factors for the market, making it difficult to change the overall pattern of prices remaining in the doldrums. However, the emergence of loss-making risks and the continuously strengthening floor support mean that the downside room for prices is relatively limited, and the market is likely to remain in the doldrums in a consolidation pattern on a weak note. Going forward, the focus will be on the sustainability of SS futures recovery, the pace of downstream pre-season stockpiling, changes in steel mill production schedules, changes in the price spread between raw materials and finished products, and the progress of inventory buildup.
Nickel ore:
Philippines market:
Prices: Philippine nickel ore prices remained stable overall this week. CIF China prices for Ni 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.5% nickel ore were $46/wmt, $56.5/wmt, and $64.5/wmt, respectively, all flat WoW. Chinese downstream smelters have relatively ample inventory, with procurement still mainly for rigid demand, and overall transactions were sluggish. High-grade ore prices remained relatively firm, while low-grade ore still faced some pressure due to ample supply and limited demand recovery. Weather: This week, rainfall risks in major Philippine nickel ore mining areas varied. Palawan had the highest rainfall risk, with an expected 40–50 mm, which could cause periodic disruptions to road transportation and vessel loading in the mining areas around the weekend. Zambales is located in the western part of Luzon Island and, affected by the southwest monsoon, also faces relatively high rainfall risks. Surigao overall saw relatively mild risks, but intermittent rainfall around August 22–23 could cause local disruptions to transportation and loading. Overall, weather impacts were mainly concentrated in local logistics, which is not enough to change the overall supply landscape. On the supply-demand front, the Philippine nickel ore market remained in a supply-easing, demand-weak pattern overall. Mine production and exports are expected to be generally normal, with ample spot supply. China's downstream inventory was high, with limited restocking appetite, and procurement mainly to meet immediate production needs. Local rainfall and shipping delays could temporarily tighten spot supply, but have limited impact on the overall market. Looking ahead, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note over the next week. High-grade ore is expected to be relatively firm supported by stable NPI procurement demand, while low-grade ore still faces dual pressure from ample supply and weak demand. As weather impacts gradually ease, mine and port operations are expected to largely return to normal. Short-term price trends mainly depend on China's downstream restocking pace, Philippines port loading conditions, and spot supply changes.
Indonesia Market:
On the price front, Indonesian nickel ore prices edged up this week. HMA for the second half of August was $16,960/mt, up $314/mt from the first half, an increase of 1.89%. On August 18, CIF prices for Ni 1.4%, 1.5% and 1.6% nickel ore were $53.3/wmt, $60.8/wmt and $65.8/wmt, respectively, and were basically stable on August 19. The price rebound provided some support, but ample supply and cautious procurement limited upside room. On the weather front, rainfall in Morowali was limited, and mining, transport and port operations are expected to be largely normal; Halmahera faced relatively high rainfall risks, but no major disruptions so far, with limited overall impact on supply. On the supply-demand front, nickel ore supply remained relatively ample, with saprolite inventory edging up, while HPAL production ramp-up drove a decline in limonite inventory. Most smelters still had about 2 months of inventory, with limited spot procurement demand. On the policy front, the market focused on RKAB additional quotas. APNI proposed adding a 30 million mt strategic buffer quota to the existing RKAB of about 270 million mt, bringing the total to about 300 million mt; ESDM emphasized that quota adjustments need to be assessed based on actual production, downstream demand, and supply-demand balance, and are not automatically relaxed. Meanwhile, the market focused on Indonesia's possible launch of a new HPM pricing formula this month. If implemented, it could adjust the base pricing for different grades of nickel ore and affect mine quotes and smelter procurement costs, with the specific plan and implementation timing still pending official confirmation. In addition, Indonesia plans to launch a mineral and strategic commodity exchange on January 1, 2027, expected to cover nickel, coal and palm oil, aiming to establish a domestic reference price, which in the long term could enhance Indonesia's influence in nickel pricing and benchmark formation. Looking ahead, short-term nickel ore prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside room is limited. Subsequent focus should be on the progress of new RKAB approvals, the proposal of a 30 million mt strategic buffer quota, and the adjustment of the HPM pricing formula.
![[SMM Nickel Flash News] Indonesia Update — August 24, 2026](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/JjbtE20251217171732.jpeg)
