Today, SMM's 10:00 fixing price for Au(T+D) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 16,720 yuan/kg, with a premium/discount range quoted at TD-10 to 0 yuan/kg, and a weighted average price of -5.3 yuan/kg.
On the macro front, the market worries that the Ministry of Finance's plan to expand long-term bond repurchase programs will weigh on the US dollar. The US dollar index hovered near a three-month low, supporting precious metals. Last Friday, spot gold surged over $100, closing up 1.86% at $4,603/oz, hitting a new stage high. Silver returned above $70 during the session. A-share and H-share gold stocks saw a wave of limit-up trades. Currently, the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 59%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 41%. However, vigilance is still needed against the pressure from rising US Treasury yields.
On the spot market front, today's offers were concentrated at TD discounts of 5 yuan/kg to parity. Market trading sentiment was moderate, but downstream mostly transacted at negotiated prices, with shipment prices concentrated at the lower end. High silver prices consolidating at highs continued to suppress demand. In the Shanghai region, morning quotes were mainly at TD-10 to parity, with bank institutions partially purchasing to support prices. Today, market premium/discount quotes for the most-traded SHFE contract 2610 were at discounts of 60 to 50 yuan/kg.
Overall, in the short term, precious metals, supported by the weakening of US dollar credit, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risk aversion, maintain a wide-range volatile pattern with a bullish bias. On the spot market front, high silver prices continued to suppress spot order demand, and transactions generally leaned toward discounts.
