[SMM Analysis]High-Grade NPI Prices Drop Amid Supply Recovery Concerns and Sluggish Market Activity

Published: Aug 21, 2026 17:26

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The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI fell by 5.6 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,127.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average price of the Indonesia NPI FOB index dropped by 0.61 $/nickel unit WoW to 145.91 $/nickel unit. This week, overall trading in the spot market for high-grade NPI remained mediocre, with insufficient market activity and the market continuing to operate under pressure in a deadlock.

The price spread between high-nickel-point and low-nickel-point cargoes narrowed, and the premium level also pulled back. On the demand side, affected by the downward transmission from the stainless steel industry chain, downstream steel mills' purchase willingness remained low. Some steel mills with ample raw material inventory further slowed their procurement pace, and even suspended purchasing. Steel mills generally pushed for lower prices, only considering entering the market when prices pulled back to low ranges. The downstream psychological price level continued to decline, with limited buying release, and actual transactions were mainly sporadic small lots, making it difficult to form large-scale deals. On the supply side, smelters had cost support, and most suppliers had a weak willingness to sell at low prices. Meanwhile, some suppliers held expectations for the September far-month market and were reluctant to significantly lower offers. However, as the market weakened, the overall offer center from suppliers also lowered to some extent. Although futures rebounded periodically during the week, market doubts about the sustainability of the rebound did not drive actual spot buying. Market participants' views diverged significantly; near-month spot faced considerable pressure, while some resource holders pinned hopes on far-month recovery. The gap between the psychological price levels of sellers and buyers remained unresolved, and in the short term, the market lacked upward drivers. The market will continue to consolidate in a deadlock.

From the perspective of NPI conversion to high‑grade nickel matte, this week, the discount of high-grade NPI relative to refined nickel expanded slightly. During the week, nickel prices shot up and then pulled back. High-grade NPI weakened due to its own fundamental pressure, and spot market trading remained sluggish. The average discount of high-grade NPI to refined nickel expanded slightly to -158.5 yuan per nickel unit. Looking ahead to next week, refined nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, and high-grade NPI prices are also expected to maintain a weak performance. The price spread between them is expected to experience small fluctuations.

This week, China's high-grade NPI cost was basically flat. In Indonesia, production areas were affected by rising ocean freight rates, leading to a slight increase in cost, but the overall cost change was limited. Smelting costs in China and overseas did not show significant divergence, and the cost side had a weak driving effect on the current market. It is expected that nickel ore prices will remain stable in the near term, and high-grade NPI smelting costs in China and overseas will remain stable, with profit margins maintained.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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