[Weekly Review and Outlook of China Export Prices] This week, ferrous metals drifted higher overall, with slight differences among products. Coking coal and coke performed the strongest, while iron ore and finished steel saw relatively limited gains. During the week, safety supervision remained stringent, the pace of coal mine production resumptions fell short of expectations, and the structural shortage of framework coal varieties further deepened, driving coking coal futures to keep rising. Coke plants suffered heavy losses, with production enthusiasm dampened and the scope of production cuts expanding continuously, leading to simultaneous strength in both coke futures and spot prices. Rising cost support drove finished steel futures to drift higher. On the iron ore side, the ongoing Port Hedland strike boosted market sentiment to some extent, but inventory at high levels at the ports capped upside room, showing an overall consolidation pattern. Data-wise, as spot cargo remained weak and the tendency to follow the uptrend was not strong, the US dollar-denominated HRC spot price rose $5/mt MoM, sheets & plates export prices increased $2-3/mt, and long product prices rose $2-3/mt MoM, narrowing export margins.
Going forward, the supply-demand imbalance in coke is expected to ease further, with expectations of a new round of increases. Iron ore fundamentals lack sufficient support and are likely to consolidate on a subdued note, while cost support remains. For finished steel, as September approaches, the market is gradually transitioning from off-season to peak season, with end-use demand possibly seeing marginal improvement. Overall, steel prices are expected to gradually stabilize amid rising costs next week. For foreign trade prices, short-term consolidation is expected, and attention should be paid to the acceptance of buyers outside China.
