[SMM Weekly Reviewof the EU Market] HRC Ignites Upward Momentum at End of Summer Break

This week, the EU hot-rolled coil (HRC) market quietly ignited momentum at the tail end of the summer break. Northwest European offers jumped by $7 to $850/tonne EXW, while Italian prices held steady at $845/tonne EXW during the holiday period. With October production order books filled, mills collectively raised their asking prices, with some even suspending fourth-quarter offers to hold back sales, while steel service centers followed suit with higher quotes. Upward price momentum is expected to remain intact next week.

This rally is backed by solid structural support: on one hand, robust order books and tight material availability have triggered "liquidity shortages driving price gains"; on the other hand, import channels continue to narrow (Indian material offers no arbitrage window, Turkish material sees no buyer interest, and Japanese origin is hit hard by anti-dumping duties). On the cold-rolled coil (CRC) front, following anti-dumping duties on five countries combined with quota restrictions, the "usable" duty-free import space for the EU is estimated to shrink by approximately 40% compared to 2025.

However, underlying risks remain clear: end-user demand has yet to show confirmed recovery, the Kaub water level on the Rhine River remains consistently below 30 cm (forcing inland freight costs higher), and Italy's Valsider steel plant declared force majeure to halt production. Long steel products, meanwhile, performed quietly, staying sideways due to sluggish domestic demand. Looking ahead to next week, whether buyers returning from vacation will engage in actual transactions will serve as the primary challenge for this round of price hikes.