Downstream maintains dip-buying, and Shanghai spot copper spot premiums are in the doldrums [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

SMM August 21 News:

Today, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2609 contract for SMM #1 copper cathode were quoted at a premium of 190-360 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 275 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2609 contract initially shot up and then consolidated at highs. After the market open, prices quickly rose from around 107,380 yuan/mt. Despite some fluctuations, the center continued to rise; closer to 10:30, the uptrend accelerated, with the intraday high reaching around 107,780 yuan/mt. Subsequently, prices retreated from highs and moved sideways in the 107,600-107,700 yuan/mt range, closing the morning session at 107,570 yuan/mt. The backwardation price spread between contracts was between 230 and 290 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2609 contract ranged from a loss of 700 yuan/mt to a loss of 590 yuan/mt.

Intraday, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in the Shanghai area was 3.33, down 0.03 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment was 3.58, up 0.08 MoM. Historical data can be queried from the database. In early morning trading, suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at a premium of 300-320 yuan/mt. Among them, Lufang and JCC were quoted at premiums of 310-320 yuan/mt, while standard-quality copper brands such as Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, and Dajiang HS were quoted at a premium of 300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, suppliers quickly lowered their quotes, with Zijin and Tiefeng offering premiums of 250 yuan/mt, and Zhongtiaoshan traded at a premium of 270 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers slashed quotes further, with standard-quality copper largely traded at premiums of 180-210 yuan/mt. High-quality copper was scarce, with Guixi trading at premiums of 350-360 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper was also scarce, with only some MOOK available in the market.

Looking ahead to next week, Russian copper that arrived earlier has been largely absorbed by the market, and the concentrated impact of earlier import shipments on the spot market has somewhat subsided. However, according to SMM, some non-registered copper delayed due to port congestion and other factors is expected to arrive gradually in early next week, potentially increasing available supply in the market and putting downward pressure on spot premiums. On the demand side, downstream buyers mainly focus on dip-buying and essential restocking. Although intraday purchasing sentiment continued to recover, standard-quality copper saw trades only after quotes were successively lowered from around 300 yuan/mt in early morning to 180-210 yuan/mt, indicating that downstream acceptance of current copper prices and relatively high premiums remains limited. Meanwhile, high-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper remain relatively scarce, and the price spread between brands is expected to persist. In summary, under the combined effects of non-registered copper arrivals replenishing supply, downstream pushing for lower prices, and high copper prices curbing rush-buying demand, spot SHFE copper premiums against the 2609 contract are expected to remain in the coming week, but the overall center may continue to be in the doldrums. Should copper prices pull back significantly, dip-buying demand may be released, providing some support for the lower end of premiums.