[SMM Analysis] Manganese Industry Chain Recovers as Stocking for Upcoming Peak Season Begins

In mid-to-late August, as the traditional industry peak season officially kicks off, the fundamentals of China’s full manganese compound industrial chain have achieved marginal improvement. The prolonged weak and volatile market trend during the off-season has come to an end. The overall sector has stepped out of its sluggish pattern and entered a stage of bottom consolidation, stabilization and gradual recovery.

The current market rebound is not limited to individual products, but represents a coordinated recovery across the entire industrial chain, covering upstream electrolytic manganese raw materials, midstream industrial manganese salts, and downstream battery-grade manganese materials. Multiple positive factors from cost, supply and demand sides have gradually emerged. Market trading sentiment has steadily improved and industry confidence has rebounded, laying a solid fundamental foundation for further price recovery. The manganese compound sector overall retains stable and upward momentum.

On the cost side, the manganese compound industry maintains solid bottom support, effectively underpinning overall market prices and limiting further downside risks. Although manganese ore prices have edged down slightly and marginally weakened smelting cost support, core production costs including sulfuric acid, electricity and auxiliary materials have remained stable, keeping comprehensive smelting costs steady and largely curbing downward price pressure. Meanwhile, lithium carbonate prices in the lithium battery chain have halted their continuous decline, with falling momentum slowing and a mild rebound emerging. This has significantly improved the cost environment for downstream battery manganese materials such as lithium manganate, reversing the previous passive situation where weak lithium prices dragged down manganese material quotations. Dual cost supports have formed synergy, providing reliable fundamental protection for the stabilization and recovery of manganese compound prices.

On the supply side, the industry presents a loose and healthy supply-demand pattern with stable operating conditions and no extreme market volatility risks. Major domestic manganese production areas maintain stable operation, with plant operating rates remaining at normal and reasonable levels. Overall market supply is sufficient with phased output increments fully meeting current rigid downstream procurement demand, with no supply shortage pressure. In addition, mainstream smelting enterprises adopt flexible production control and demand-based scheduling strategies to dynamically adjust market supply, effectively easing inventory accumulation and avoiding downward market pressure caused by oversupply. The stable and well-controlled supply structure sustains regular downstream purchasing and creates favorable conditions for steady and moderate market recovery.

On the demand side, the pre-peak-season stocking effect serves as the core driving force for the industrial chain’s improvement. After a prolonged off-season consumption cycle, downstream industries including stainless steel, lithium battery precursors, 3C consumer electronics and small power batteries have depleted their previously accumulated inventories to low levels, releasing urgent restocking demand. With the approaching peak season in late August, downstream enterprises have shown growing willingness for advance stocking, driving a notable month-on-month increase in market inquiry activity and actual cargo pickup volume, ending the sluggish trading atmosphere of the off-season. Current downstream procurement remains rational with buyers mainly adopting hand-to-mouth purchasing strategies without large-scale aggressive stockpiling, which limits excessive market fluctuations. Nevertheless, continuous rigid restocking activities have effectively improved market trading sentiment and driven marginal demand recovery across the entire manganese compound chain.