[SMM Analysis] LiPF6 exports in July 2026 rose approximately 19.9% MoM

In the early morning of August 20, 73,500 mt of sulfur directly purchased from the Middle East by Guizhou Phosphate Chemical Group successfully arrived at Zhanjiang Port, Guangdong. This is the first vessel of mainstream Middle East cargo directly imported and purchased by Guizhou Phosphate Chemical Group since the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, and also the largest single purchase contract for Middle East sulfur in terms of volume and value since the establishment of the group in 2019.

This week, the industry chain exhibited a divergent trend. The lithium segment performed relatively strong. Lithium ore prices held firm, supported by tight spot cargo flows, price firmness at the mine end, and rigid procurement by salt plants; however, the squeeze of high-priced raw materials on smelting profits gradually emerged. Lithium carbonate first rose then fell, with downstream purchase willingness strengthening near 150,000 yuan/mt; market sentiment for lithium hydroxide recovered somewhat. The nickel salt and ternary chain were under pressure overall, with prices of nickel sulphate, ternary cathode precursor, and ternary cathode material weakening; export orders and demand for 9-series materials provided partial support. LFP maintained high activity, with industry effective capacity near full load; tight supply of iron phosphate became the main bottleneck, and cathode inventory continued to decline. Prices of anode, separator, and electrolyte were generally stable, but supply and demand for raw materials such as LiPF6 and VC tightened. Sodium-ion battery NFPP orders continuously exceeded existing capacity, and ESS battery cabin prices remained stable. The recycling market was affected by the decline in cobalt sulphate prices; transactions of ternary and LCO black mass became cautious. The industry as a whole remains in a phase of inventory adjustment and supply-demand rebalancing before the peak season.

The cobalt industry chain remained in the doldrums overall this week. Refined cobalt continued to grind lower due to weak market sentiment and demand. Although import data came in below expectations, the rebound was limited. The price spread for cobalt intermediate products between upstream and downstream remained wide, and miners' tenders kept failing, with the market lacking effective transaction guidance. Cost support for cobalt sulphate shifted notably lower, as both primary and recycled material quotes continued to ease, and downstream buyers showed a strong desire to push for lower prices. Cobalt chloride and Co3O4 were dragged by high inventory and sluggish end-use demand, with transactions remaining sluggish. Cobalt powder quotes and the transaction center both moved lower, while purchases by hard alloy enterprises mainly focused on essential needs and long-term contracts. Ternary cathode precursors were under pressure due to weakening nickel and cobalt salt prices, and order coefficients for September still faced pressure. Ternary cathode material prices declined somewhat, with domestic power demand remaining weak, but export orders and demand for 9-series materials performed relatively well. LCO demand recovered slowly, with the substitution ratio of ternary cathode materials rising; prices still faced downward pressure in the near term.