[China Iron Ore Brief Comment] Iron Ore Prices in Tangshan Area May Consolidate on a Subdued Note

[Flat products]Today HRC and other flat-product export prices were steady day on day, with HRC transactions concentrated in the 485-488 USD/tonne range. Overseas enquiries and deals were much the same as yesterday, with no marked change. [Billet]Today billet export FOB prices were steady, with Jiangyin port offers at 448-454 USD/tonne. According to market feedback, overseas demand showed no clear increase and large-volume enquiries were scarce, leaving export deals unremarkable. [Rebar]Today rebar export offers at Tianjin port were steady, with overall transactions at 472-477 USD/tonne. According to exporters, some mills raised offers today on exchange rate movements, but with the yuan appreciating the market showed limited willingness to accept higher prices; higher-priced material moved slowly and overall deals changed little.

HRC futures settled at 3,291 today, up 0.03% for the day. On the spot side, cold-rolled and hot-rolled coil spot prices held steady today, with overall trading activity generally moderate. The weekly balance sheet for HRC was released today. On the supply side, HRC production rebounded this week. On the demand side, demand declined WoW this week. On the inventory side, both mill inventory and social inventory recorded buildup this week. In terms of social inventory, SMM's statistics covering 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) show HRC social inventory at 4.4982 million mt, up 54,900 mt WoW, up 1.24% WoW, and up 31.38% YoY on a calendar year basis. By region, markets in east China and north China saw inventory buildup, while south China, central China, and northeast China experienced mild destocking. From the market perspective, traders have gradually started stockpiling ahead of the peak season, but downstream procurement has yet to show clear improvement. At steel mills, shipments have improved recently due to market stockpiling activities, but considering the height of peak-season demand, traders have not engaged in above-expectations stockpiling. In the short term, prices lack a clear directional catalyst. The futures market is betting on September peak season expectations, with upside capped by current weak demand and downside supported by costs and future demand expectations. Prices are likely to move sideways within a narrow range.

[Vietnam] Vietnam’s steel market remained largely stable, with construction steel prices holding at around 531 USD/tonne EXW and HRC at approximately 515–522 USD/tonne CFR Ho Chi Minh City. Buyers and sellers are largely taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the next price announcements from major mills, expected next week before the September 2 Independence Day holiday, with the new offers likely to provide a clearer signal for near-term price direction. Domestic project-linked demand remains supportive as major infrastructure projects move toward the September 2 inauguration, while the market awaits the next wave of infrastructure investment in Hanoi. Meanwhile, discussions between steel industry participants and the Ministry of Industry and Trade regarding Taiwan’s anti-dumping investigation have intensified, with the government urging affected companies to submit company profiles and relevant information to the Taiwanese authorities and actively cooperate with the investigation.