[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (August 14 - August 20), platinum and palladium prices experienced wild swings, with bulls and bears rapidly shifting. At the start of the week, prices continued the pullback from last week, affected by geopolitical uncertainties and profit-taking by bulls. Both platinum and palladium opened lower and declined. On August 17, the precious metals sector strengthened overall, coupled with easing expectations in US-Iran talks. Platinum and palladium rebounded sharply, with platinum closing up 3.37% at 436.00 yuan/g, and palladium up 2.03% at 318.95 yuan/g. On August 18, platinum and palladium retreated after a rapid rise, indicating strong resistance above.
On August 19, pressured by the US 30-year Treasury yield breaking above 5.3% to a new high since 2007, the US dollar index strengthening, and concentrated profit-taking by bulls, platinum and palladium fell sharply again. Platinum closed down 2.86% at 423.50 yuan/g, and palladium closed down 2.71% at 309.20 yuan/g. But the night market saw a key shift: the US Treasury announced that the single-operation size limit for long-term nominal coupon Treasury liquidity support repurchase operations would be at least doubled from $2 billion to $4 billion. The 30-year US Treasury yield plummeted from a high of 5.33% to around 5.19%, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and international precious metals surged across the board. Driven by the sharp overnight rally in overseas markets, on August 20, the domestic market opened higher with a gap. Platinum closed up about 4.65% at 443.70 yuan/g, and palladium closed up about 2.22% at 315.65 yuan/g.
On GFEX, the most-traded platinum contract hit a high of 445.40 yuan/g during the week and a low of 418.00 yuan/g. As of the close on August 20, it was reported at 443.65 yuan/g, with platinum up about 3.0% for the week. The most-traded palladium contract hit a high of 321.55 yuan/g and a low of 307.25 yuan/g during the week, closing at 315.65 yuan/g on August 20, with palladium down about 1.7% for the week.
On the spot side, spot premiums for platinum and palladium followed futures fluctuations slightly this week, with overall consumption still sluggish. During the week, mainstream platinum quotations against the most-traded contract were -4~-2 yuan/g. The price spread between the SGE platinum 9995 and the GFEX contract remained at about 3 yuan/g. Mainstream palladium quotations against the most-traded contract were -3~-2 yuan/g. On August 19, when futures fell sharply, some downstream enterprises replenished inventories at lower prices. On August 20, after futures opened with a gap higher, spot prices lagged in following the rise, and the discount passively widened to the low end of the mainstream quotations. Platinum and palladium warehouse warrants showed a slight premium, concentrated at a discount of -2.5~-1.5 yuan/g against the GFEX most-traded contract. Automotive catalysts and industrial consumption remained weak, and end-users mainly restocked on demand, with insufficient willingness for active stockpiling. Overall, the sluggish consumption pattern in the platinum and palladium spot market remained unchanged for the week.
Looking ahead, the US Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchase scale became the core marginal variable this week, providing strong support for precious metal valuation repair in the short term. However, the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed, and downside constraints remain: First, the bond repurchase scale is $4 billion per operation, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the $40 trillion outstanding long-term US debt, raising doubts about whether it can persistently suppress long-end yields. Second, the hawkish tone of the US Fed has not fundamentally reversed, and interest rate constraints still exist. The subsequent price direction still needs further guidance from US Treasury yield trends, substantial progress in US-Iran talks, and US Fed policy signals.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Review]
COMEX platinum and palladium inventory showed a synchronized slight destocking feature this week. Platinum inventory continued the previous downtrend, with total inventory falling to about 393,500 oz, down about 5,000 oz WoW. The destocking trend continued, with the core reason being that under high-level consolidation, industrial buying though cautious still had restocking demand at low prices, coupled with some warrant cancellations and outflows after the earlier price rebound, leading to continuous inventory consumption. Palladium inventory also pulled back slightly, with total inventory at about 251,100 oz. Although slightly down WoW, it remained at a near one-year high level. US warehouse buffer inventory was ample, and the loose supply pattern had not fundamentally changed.
On imports, in July 2026, imports of unwrought platinum and platinum powder were about 8.35 mt, down 21.74% MoM and up 23.52% YoY. Imports of unwrought palladium and palladium powder were about 2.99 mt, down 37.05% MoM and down 2.61% YoY. Although the July platinum and palladium import data pulled back slightly, overall imports have grown rapidly since early 2026. Currently, domestic platinum and palladium supply is relatively ample, putting some pressure on domestic prices.
On ETFs, platinum and palladium ETF holdings continued to diverge. Platinum ETFs saw sporadic small inflows during the price rebound, but no continuous large-scale increases, with institutional allocation sentiment still cautious. Palladium ETFs continued the medium and long-term net outflow trend, with long-term capital exodus not fundamentally reversed, providing weaker support for palladium prices than platinum.
On leasing rates, London platinum and palladium leasing rates remained low. The 1-month platinum leasing rate was below 2%, while the 1-month palladium leasing rate hovered around 1%, indicating ample liquidity in the spot market and weak demand for borrowing. Overall, the loose supply pattern remained unchanged.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride fluctuated with raw material prices, with spot spot continuing to see weak demand.
This week, chloroplatinic acid operated steadily at 176.5 yuan/g at the beginning of the week, then pulled back slightly to 174.5 yuan/g on Wednesday, and rebounded strongly to 183.0 yuan/g on Thursday, hitting a new high for the week. It accumulated an increase of about 3.7% for the week. Chloroplatinic acid prices are highly correlated with platinum. This week, chloroplatinic acid experienced a pattern of "consolidating higher → moving downwards after a higher opening → falling under pressure → strongly rebounding". On Thursday, the US Treasury announced at least doubling the scale of long-term nominal Treasury repurchase operations. Long-end US Treasury yields fell significantly, the US dollar index dropped 0.85% at one point during the day, the largest decline in three weeks, and overall precious metal valuations rose. The GFEX most-traded platinum contract PT2610 surged 4.52% to close at 443.15 yuan/g, driving chloroplatinic acid significantly higher.
Palladium chloride opened at 202 yuan/g this week. It fell continuously at the beginning of the week, dropping to a weekly low of 196 yuan/g on Wednesday, and rebounded slightly to 198.5 yuan/g on Thursday following improved macro sentiment. It accumulated a decline of about 1.7% for the week. This week, palladium prices were relatively weak. On Wednesday, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.74%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.33%, refreshing a high since 2007, putting pressure on the precious metals futures. Raw material fell under pressure. On Thursday, with the US dollar weakening and US Treasury yields pulling back, palladium prices rebounded slightly, and palladium chloride followed up to 198.5 yuan/g.
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