Cell Market Diverges, EVA Prices Move Sideways [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM, August 20:

Solar Cell

Price

The solar cell market diverged, with quotes for different sizes taking diverging trends. The 210N cell for the Chinese market, lacking support from actual orders at previous high prices, saw producers lower their quotes, with prices pulling back slightly to 0.327-0.343 yuan/W. Quotes for 183 and 210R remained generally stable, as producers no longer pushed for higher prices. Affected by price adjustments from some enterprises, the high end of the price range narrowed while the low end moved up in tandem. Currently, the 210R price range is 0.327-0.356 yuan/W, and the 183 price range is 0.325-0.361 yuan/W. Overall, overseas demand provided support for 183 and 210R, while weak Chinese procurement dragged on 210N. In the short term, the futures are diverging, requiring ongoing monitoring of actual order transaction changes.

Production

In August, the industry's initial production schedule was overall lower than in July, as producers had proactively cut capacity due to weak domestic demand. With the recovery of overseas export orders, some enterprises plan to raise the capacity for the export specifications of 183 and 210R. At this stage, adjustments to increase or cut production have not been fully implemented, and the actual supply volume in August still needs to be tracked based on plant operating conditions.

Inventory

Boosted by the favorable US Section 232 policy, surging export orders coupled with active purchasing by traders led to significant destocking of solar cell inventory across the industry, easing inventory pressure continuously and providing fundamental support for the current market movement.

Module

Price

This week, China's module guidance prices saw another slight increase, but overall transaction prices changed relatively limitedly compared to before. In the distributed market, both distributors and producers have recently raised prices, but trading volume remains low currently, with most end-user clients still on the sidelines or holding resistance sentiment that suppresses module prices. Module enterprises are now under dual pressure from both upstream and downstream. On the centralized side, prices have largely remained stable recently, with some small project bid opening prices even declining, showing a completely opposite picture to the distributed market. Currently, prices for distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7135 yuan/W, 0.7235 yuan/W, and 0.7305 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.7045 yuan/W, 0.7145 yuan/W, and 0.708 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Recently, some enterprises indicated that due to increasing production costs and declining downstream demand, planned production is expected to decline. For the September production schedule, enterprises may see some differentiation.

Inventory

China's module inventory edged up this week. Market trading sentiment was poor, downstream purchases were largely at a standstill, module enterprises' shipments were slow, and inventory levels rose.

PV Film

Prices:

EVA/POE PV-grade material:

The mainstream spot transaction range for PV-grade EVA resin in China was 10,100-10,350 yuan/mt, with resin prices moving sideways. This week, the settlement price of the leading petrochemical plant was flat MoM, and upstream ethylene prices fluctuated limitedly, providing no significant boost to the EVA cost side. Supply side, the market's core focus remained on the startup progress of PV-grade EVA units at an industry leader. The release pace of new supply in the short term was still unclear, while operations at other production units were generally stable. Overall, China's PV-grade EVA prices are expected to continue their stable consolidation trend in the short term.

PV Film:

The price of 420g transparent EVA film was 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and the price of 380g EPE film was 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². Demand side, this month's orders for module factories were mainly executed under long-term contracts, with early-month locked-in prices fully implemented, leaving limited room for price adjustments during the month. Spot order quotes also remained stable, showing no significant fluctuations. Cost side, upstream PV-grade resin prices moved sideways recently, so film production costs saw no obvious change. Overall, with relatively firm cost support, short-term film prices are expected to temporarily track the sideways movement of resin prices.

Production

This week, PV-grade EVA production pulled back slightly, affected by a petrochemical unit switching to foaming material. The August production schedule for film was slightly lowered from the early-month plan.

Inventory

Inventory at petrochemical plants is currently low, with limited spot cargo available in the market. Film manufacturers' inventories remain within a reasonable and controllable range.

PV Glass:

Prices

3.2mm Single-layer Coating: The quote for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass was 15.5-16 yuan/m², with glass prices increasing.

3.2mm Double-layer Coating: The quote for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass was 16.5-17 yuan/m², with glass prices increasing.

2.0mm Single-layer Coating: The quote for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass was 9-10 yuan/m². The price center of glass enterprises' quotes edged up slightly compared to before, with expectations for further quote increases still present at month-end settlement.

2.0mm Double-layer Coating: The quote for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass was 10-11 yuan/m², with glass prices increasing.

Production

This week, no new cold repairs or shutdowns were added to domestic kilns in China. Although there were more production days, the impact of previous furnace shutdowns means August glass production is expected to drop significantly compared to July.

Inventory

China's glass inventory level continued to decline, although local shipments were previously hindered due to the impact of typhoon weather, but after transportation resumed, the rate of decline in the glass inventory level increased.