SMM Nickel, August 18:
Macro and Market News:
(1) A super El Niño event may form this winter, likely the strongest on record.
(2) The 10-year US Treasury yield once rose to 4.75%, hitting a new high since January 2025.
Spot Market:
On August 18, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 128,200 yuan/mt, down 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average Jinchuan #1 refined nickel premium was 1,550 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 400 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged in early trading and then consolidated at lows, closing the morning session at 127,570 yuan/mt, down 0.58%.
Expectations of looser Indonesian nickel ore RKAB quotas persist, but sulfur prices remain above $1,000/mt, still providing cost support. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt range.
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