Supplier shipment sentiment diverges, lead ingot transactions remain weak [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures:

Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract drifted higher throughout the day on August 18, opening at $1885.5/mt. It moved sideways in a range of $1883-1890/mt during Asian hours, briefly surged toward the end of European hours to touch a high of $1896.5/mt, then subsequently pulled back, ultimately closing at $1888.0/mt, up $3.0/mt or 0.16% from the previous trading session. The daily trading range was $1883.0-1896.5/mt, with a swing of $13.5/mt. The daily candlestick was a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow. Trading volume was 4,729 lots, open interest was 178,938 lots, and intraday open interest fell sharply by 5,863 lots.

Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract night session opened at 15,965 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly surged to a high of 16,025 yuan/mt, subsequently consolidated lower to dip to 15,905 yuan/mt, then rebounded to trade around 15,955 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.31% from the previous session’s closing price. Night session trading volume was 33,162 lots, open interest was 79,286 lots, down 892 lots from the previous session.

On the macro front:

The US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, Trump said there were no negotiations with Iran, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remained fully effective, the UAE suspended trade with Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continued to intensify. The US dollar index traded sideways above 99 for nearly two weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.75%, a new high since January 2025.

On the domestic front, a super-strong El Niño event could form this winter, likely the strongest on record, potentially disrupting power supply and smelter operations. The A-share market was mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.56%, as combined turnover on the two exchanges reached 2.4 trillion yuan. Housing provident fund policy adjustments now allow withdrawals for home decoration and property fee payments, with no income thresholds for rental withdrawals, benefiting post-cyclical real estate consumption.

Spot fundamentals:

SHFE lead pulled back slightly, continuing to consolidate at highs. The SMM 1# lead price fell 25 yuan/mt. Suppliers' selling sentiment became more divided, with some holding firm on quotes or suspending sales due to limited inventory, while others sold at prevailing prices. Quotations from major producing regions were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Secondary lead smelters showed only modest selling interest, tradable material in the market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price, delivered basis. Downstream enterprises had limited restocking needs, and inquiry interest declined from yesterday, leaving spot market trade somewhat sluggish. Although lead-acid battery consumption relatively improved, demand for lead ingot purchases remained limited.

Inventory:

As of August 18, LME lead inventory was 409,000 mt, down 1,975 mt from the previous trading day; total SHFE lead ingot warrant inventory was 65,564 mt, down 325 mt from the previous week.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, inquiry activity declined compared to the previous day, and spot market trading was sluggish; lead-acid battery consumption improved somewhat, but procurement demand for lead ingots remained limited, providing insufficient upward momentum for lead prices. Supply side, suppliers showed divergent attitudes toward shipments: some maintained firm offers or suspended shipments due to limited supply, while others sold at market prices; secondary lead smelters had moderate enthusiasm for shipments, leading to limited circulating sources in the market; coupled with declines in both LME and domestic lead inventories, this provided some support for prices. Overall, lead prices maintained a fluctuating trend.