[SMM Analysis] EF Steel Mill Operating Rates Fall amid Losses and Off-Season

HRC inventory in Ningbo stood at 356,000 mt as of August 19, 2026, up 31,000 mt or 9.5% week-on-week from 325,000 mt on August 12, marking the highest level since early July, according to SMM survey. Most warehouses posted inventory builds of varying degrees this week, sustaining the overall restocking trend.

Russia exported 12.5 mnt of coal to South Korea in the first half of 2026, an increase of 5.9 mnt, or 89.4%, year on year. Russia accounted for approximately 22% of South Korea’s coal imports and became its second-largest supplier after Australia. South Korea’s total coal imports rose by 21.3% to 56.9 mnt, with Russia contributing around 59% of the net increase. Australian shipments to South Korea increased by 35.4% to 19.5 mnt, while Indonesian supplies declined by 2.5% to 11.9 mnt and Canadian deliveries rose by 33.3% to 5.6 mnt. Combined growth from Russia and Australia reached 11 mnt, exceeding the 10 mnt increase in South Korea’s total imports and offsetting lower shipments from Indonesia, Colombia and the United States.

Global coal markets generally strengthened over the past week, although performance varied across regions and grades. European thermal coal indices rose above $124/t, supported by firmer oil and gas prices, geopolitical risks and weaker renewable and nuclear generation during the heatwave. South African 6,000 kcal/kg high-CV coal exceeded $109/t, with additional support from Indian enquiries and a 12 August train derailment that disrupted deliveries to Richards Bay Coal Terminal. China’s Qinhuangdao 5,500 NAR spot price strengthened above $126/t. Coal stocks at nine major ports declined by 0.87 mnt week on week to 26.51 mnt, while inventories at six major coastal thermal power plants fell by 0.25 Mt to 14.01 Mt. Lower inventories and tighter mine safety inspections supported domestic prices and increased Chinese traders’ interest in imported blending coal. Indonesian 5,900 GAR coal rose to $104.5/t, while 4,200 GAR material approached $64/t. Australian thermal coal prices were mixed, with 6,000 high-CV coal falling below $128/t while 5,500 mid-CV material strengthened to $95–96/t. Meanwhile, limited availability of premium metallurgical coal, renewed purchasing and improved Chinese market sentiment lifted the Australian HCC index to $224/t.