August 14, 2026
The spot price of gold and silver fell sharply during US trading on Thursday, as an unchanged headline PPI (Producer Price Index) was offset by a stronger core PPI, a stable dollar and caution ahead of Friday’s retail sales report. In contrast to this very short-term development, analysts at UBS expect the yellow metal to challenge the US$5,000 per ounce mark again in the first half of the year.
This is because the experts view the gold price’s breakout above the resistance zone at US$4,250 – above which the precious metal continues to trade – as the first significant breakthrough in two months, driven largely by institutional buying from China and fresh inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
Whilst the immediate market environment remains volatile – particularly as robust US economic data, high oil prices and a Fed that remains restrictive for the time being could weigh on the price – UBS makes a strict distinction here between temporary trading risk and the long-term bullish scenario. The fundamental basis for this rests on three key pillars:
With inflation set to ease, the major bank expects the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy from 2027 onwards. Falling real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold and, at the same time, put pressure on the US dollar. The greenback is also suffering from high US budget and current account deficits, which historically have always provided a strong tailwind for precious metals. At the same time, central banks are providing a solid safety net. In the second quarter alone, they purchased 289 tonnes of gold; for the year as a whole, UBS expects purchases of up to 1,000 tonnes. This government demand stabilises the market in the long term and effortlessly offsets weaknesses in other sectors.
UBS therefore confirms the medium-term bullish scenario and expects gold to rise towards US$5,000 in the first half of 2027.
For commodity investors, the message is clear: from the Swiss bank’s perspective, pullbacks towards US$4,000 or below represent strategic entry opportunities. UBS continues to advise investors to maintain a mid-single-digit allocation to gold in their portfolios.
Source：https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-ubs-sees-a-path-towards-usd5-000-in-the-first-half-of-2027
