Wafer and Solar Cell Quotes Surge Sharply; PV Film Consolidates and Stabilizes [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM News, August 18:

Wafer

Prices: The market price for 18X wafers was 1.097-1.12 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers 1.132-1.157 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers 1.235-1.258 yuan/piece. Wafers of all sizes posted a notable increase, with 18X up nearly 30%. At present, most second- and third-tier enterprises have basically followed with price hikes. Prices for 210RN and 210N were still locked in a tug-of-war around 0.05 yuan/piece, and overall market trading volume was gradually expanding.

Production: According to feedback from SMM’s latest survey, August production fell by 1-2 GW MoM. Although production has been cut for two consecutive months, overall production remains relatively high versus demand. Recently, as wafer prices fell below cash cost, top-tier players facing excessive inventory pressure chose to cut production in response. In addition, the total volume and distribution share of toll processing saw adjustments.

Inventory: Inventory buildup among wafer enterprises showed a divergent trend. Inventory at top-tier players has already exceeded a reasonable range. India began stockpiling in succession, with demand for P-type 18X export orders surging. In addition, transshipment demand also increased, and multiple African countries moved into the top ranks of exports.

Solar cell

Prices: Today, prices for full-size solar cells continued to shoot up sharply. The price range for 210R reached 0.31-0.345 Yuan/W, 183 rose to 0.31-0.35 Yuan/W, and 210N was adjusted to 0.31-0.336 Yuan/W. Boosted by export orders, the futures market has already seen high prices of 0.38 Yuan/W for 210R and 183. However, most at this level were offers, with actual transactions concentrated at 0.34-0.35 Yuan/W, and mainly trader purchases; module plants showed weak willingness to accept high prices. Current quotations are mainly supported by overseas demand, while downstream module follow-through was weak. Going forward, it will be necessary to continue monitoring the fulfillment of high-priced orders.

Production: The initial August production schedule was lowered versus July. Earlier, producers were relatively cautious about domestic demand and proactively reduced production schedules. Stimulated by the recovery in export orders, some enterprises planned to raise capacity for 183 and 210R export models, but adjustments for production increases and production cuts have not yet been fully implemented. The actual supply level in August still needs to track plant operating dynamics.

Inventory: Driven by the US Section 232 policy, export orders expanded in volume, coupled with traders’ proactive purchases, leading to a notable pull back in industry solar cell inventory. Overseas channels accelerated destocking, further easing inventory pressure and providing fundamental support to the current futures market.

PV film

Prices

PV-grade EVA:

The current mainstream spot transaction range for PV-grade EVA resin in China was 10,200-10,350 yuan/mt, with resin prices temporarily consolidating within a range. Supply side, affected by the shutdown of one production line at a leading petrochemical producer combined with the delayed start-up of another major unit, the market had expectations of a contraction in PV-grade EVA supply. However, other petrochemical producers were still running PV-grade EVA in their production schedules, offsetting to some extent the reduction caused by unit disruptions. PV-grade EVA prices were expected to see no significant change in the short term and may remain stable.

PV film:

Currently, the price of 420 g transparent EVA film was 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and the price of 380 g EPE film was 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². Upstream EVA prices were fluctuating within a limited range, keeping film production costs relatively stable on the cost side; meanwhile, the downstream module segment had not yet seen a notable demand boost, and the market mostly maintained just-in-time procurement. Film prices were expected to largely continue consolidating and stabilizing, with a focus going forward on changes in upstream EVA supply-demand and price fluctuations.

Production: This week, PV-grade EVA production remained temporarily stable; the August film production schedule was up 6-7% MoM from July, and raw material procurement was still mainly just-in-time purchasing.

Inventory: Petrochemical producers’ inventory was currently low, with limited spot cargo available; film producers’ inventory remained at a reasonable normal level, with no concentrated large-scale restocking.