US Dollar Fell, Metals Rose Broadly, LME Copper Rose for Seven Consecutive Weeks, Coke Rose Nearly 2%, Gold Price Rose for Four Consecutive Weeks, Crude Oil Posted Sharp Weekly Gain [Overnight Market]

SMM News on August 15:

Metals market:

Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%.

Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%.

Overnight last Friday, overseas metals: LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, up 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%.

Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver logged a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week.

As of 7:17 on August 15, overnight last Friday’s closing prices:

Macro front

China:

[Central bank: Aggregate social financing rose by 2.225 trillion yuan in the first seven months; M2 in July was up 7.7% YoY] According to preliminary statistics from the central bank, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 2.225 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans to the real economy (converted into RMB) increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing of enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing of government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, loans to households decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 928.1 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans increased by 101 billion yuan; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 4.34 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 5.32 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At the end of July, the outstanding balance of broad money (M2) was 355.51 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The outstanding balance of narrow money (M1) was 115.46 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The outstanding balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.82 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injection totaled 725.5 billion yuan.

[Shanghai: Promoting Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Smart Vehicles, and High-End Equipment to Accumulate Strength and Gain Momentum] Today (August 14), Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary Chen Jining spent an entire day conducting a survey and presiding over a symposium in the Lingang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Chen Jining pointed out that the Lingang Special Area should always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity and core competitiveness. It should seize the opportunities of digitalization, intelligence, and green development, place greater emphasis on cultivating industrial ecosystems while ensuring project implementation, focus on cultivating industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, and focus on developing industrial platforms and improving service capabilities, thereby enhancing the resilience and stickiness of industrial development and promoting leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, smart vehicles, and high-end equipment to accumulate strength and gain momentum. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios, promote the digital and intelligent transformation of industry, increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing, and equipment operation and maintenance, and drive the systematic transformation of the entire process covering industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and testing, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment, provide better services for enterprises, and accelerate the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen the reform of the management system of development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release)

On the US dollar:

Last Friday, the US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight, closing at 99.64. On a weekly basis: the US dollar index rose on the week, up 0.04% for the week.

US July retail sales released on Friday decreased 0.6% MoM, marking the largest decline in more than a year. Coupled with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September collapsed further. The US dollar index fell. Under the triple blow of mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and unexpectedly weak retail sales on Friday, the probability of a September rate hike plunged from 75% at the end of July to around 25%; CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders were betting on rates being held steady in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from "how many more rate hikes are needed" to "whether this round of rate hikes has ended".(Wallstreetcn)

The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that retail sales in July fell 0.6% MoM, the largest decline in more than a year, while market expectations were for slight growth. Core control group sales excluding automobiles, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the worst performance since January 2025. The University of Michigan's preliminary August Consumer Sentiment Index released on the same day was only 51, well below the expected 54.5.(Wallstreetcn)

US consumer confidence fell for the first time in three months as households worried about deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index fell to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median expectation among economists was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and markedly above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next 5 to 10 years. After two consecutive months of improvement, consumer confidence in both the short- and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the beginning of the year, changes in consumers' expectations for the labour market have been relatively small. The survey showed that consumers were increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment declined. This survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed that US retail sales in July recorded their largest decline in over a year, as consumers cut back on automobile and online store purchases.(Jin10 Data App)

US Fed's Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He pointed out that the two most recent productivity data readings were disappointing, and if productivity continues to decline, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed to make a judgment; continued consumption weakness is concerning, though the weakness in retail sales is currently only a single-month performance. At the same time, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall.(from Wallstreetcn App)

According to CME "US Fed Watch": the probabilities for the US Fed in September are no change in interest rates (67.5%) and a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike (32.5%). The probabilities for the US Fed in October are no change in interest rates (53.3%), a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike (39.8%), and a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike (6.8%).(Jin10 Data App)

On the macro front:

This week will see the release of China July total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China July value added of industrial enterprises above designated size YoY, Canada July CPI MoM, US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US August NAHB Housing Market Index, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to June, UK July unemployment rate, UK July unemployment benefit claimant count, Germany August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending August 1, US July total annualized housing starts, US July total building permits, US July import price index MoM, US July industrial output MoM, US July pending home sales index MoM, UK July CPI MoM, UK July retail price index MoM, Eurozone June seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone July final CPI YoY, Eurozone July final CPI MoM, China July SWIFT RMB share in global payments, China 1-year loan prime rate for August 20, Australia July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany July PPI MoM, Switzerland July trade balance, UK August CBI industrial orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US July Conference Board Leading Indicators MoM, UK August GfK Consumer Confidence Index, Japan July core CPI YoY, UK July public sector net borrowing, UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, France August flash manufacturing PMI, Germany August flash manufacturing PMI, Eurozone August flash manufacturing PMI, UK August flash manufacturing PMI, UK August flash services PMI, Canada June retail sales MoM, US August flash S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, global flash services PMI, Eurozone August flash consumer confidence index, and other data.

In addition, this week also requires attention: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the performance of the national economy; European Central Bank President Lagarde will attend the "Global Economic Outlook" discussion at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the Hang Seng Index Series Review results for Q2 2026.

On the crude oil front:

Last Friday, futures for both crude oils rose in overnight trading, with WTI crude oil futures up 1.42% and Brent crude oil futures up 2.01%. On a weekly basis: WTI crude oil futures rose for the week, up 5.4%; Brent crude oil futures closed higher for the week, up 6.31%.

International crude oil prices rose, driven by a near standstill in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, and traffic came to a near standstill. The US said it could maintain a maritime blockade against Iran indefinitely, and Trump also said that the US would impose severe economic measures on Iran. Capital Economics estimates that current crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Dated Brent maintained a spot premium structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining centers has been impaired, and surging refined product prices are being passed directly to end consumers. (Wall Street CN)

Traders said that, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for deliveries later this year, and at least four Asian refiners purchased US crude this week. Both the US and Iran claim control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below the monthly average in the latter half of this week. With no sign that shipping through the strait will resume normal flows in the short term, tightening fuel supply will push up refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude inventories needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex purchased 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell and plans to take delivery in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13 to $14 per barrel over the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner Cosmo Energy Holdings bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner ENEOS purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura at a premium of more than $10 per barrel over the October WTI price and plans to take delivery in November. (Jin10 Data App)

US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US petroleum production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, compared with 13.82 million barrels per day in July; production is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day in September. (Jin10 Data App)

It is worth noting that, due to contract rollover, the September NYMEX New York crude oil futures will complete final floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and final electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to exchange announcements regarding expiration and contract rollover to manage risk. In addition, some trading platforms usually set the expiration time of US crude oil contracts one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule, so please pay extra attention.