Next week, macro data will mainly include China's July total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's July value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size YoY, and the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ended August 1, among others. In addition, the July PPI YoY growth released this week narrowed to 4.7%, and market expectations for rate hikes by the US Fed within the year cooled somewhat. Next week, close attention will need to be paid to the minutes of the US Fed's monetary policy meeting to further observe its subsequent monetary policy direction.
For LME lead, *LME lead inventories fell for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of 39,200 mt, providing some support for lead prices. Meanwhile, LME lead Cash-3M remained at a discount, with the discount narrowing slightly this week to -$43.56/mt, indicating that ex-China spot demand was still relatively weak, which constrained further gains in lead prices. In addition, Middle East peace talks still faced significant uncertainty, while expectations for ex-China economic recovery continued. Lead prices are expected to continue to consolidate at highs, and LME lead will trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week.
For SHFE lead, next week will be the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Before delivery, lead ingot inventories are expected to build as scheduled, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance will increase at primary lead enterprises in mid-to-late August, mainly at delivery brand enterprises, and market supply is expected to tighten. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, and downstream enterprises' just-in-time procurement demand was moderate, which can be seen as a neutral factor. Lead prices are expected to rebound after testing lows, with SHFE lead trading in the range of 15,750-16,150 yuan/mt.
Spot Lead Price Forecast: 15,550-15,850 yuan/mt. Consumption side, as downstream enterprises' high-temperature holidays end, some enterprises will resume normal production, and regular procurement demand is expected to rebound, easing the pressure from lead ingot inventory buildup after delivery to some extent. Supply side, both increases and decreases are expected to coexist. Maintenance at primary lead enterprises will bring a certain reduction in supply, and with smelters holding prices firm when selling, spot lead discounts will widen only to a limited extent. Meanwhile, as losses at secondary lead enterprises gradually narrow, production resumption expectations will strengthen, and market supply may increase somewhat; secondary refined lead is expected to continue trading at a discount.
![SHFE Lead Drifted Lower, Dragged by the Sector; Short-Term Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Limited Decline [Lead Futures Brief]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/xVgcv20251217171721.jpg)
![Dual Pressure from Raw Materials and Losses, Secondary Crude Lead Market Trading Generally Weak [SMM Secondary Crude Lead Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/xVUpr20251217171722.jpg)
![SMM Primary Lead Smelter Weekly Operating Rate (August 7-13, 2026) [SMM Primary Lead Operating Rate Weekly Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/XMxKT20251217171720.jpeg)
