[SMM Analysis] Spot Lithium Carbonate Prices Consolidate at Highs, Downstream Buyers Remain Cautious

Today, SMM's spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fluctuated higher compared with the previous trading day. The lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened flat at 149,700 yuan per tonne today; following the opening, bullish capital quickly gained momentum, driving the price to surge past 150,000 yuan per tonne. During the morning session, the price fluctuated firmly within the 152,000–153,500 yuan range, with the centre of gravity remaining above the moving average line; Around midday, the price consolidated at elevated levels; although there were minor fluctuations during this period, it found support; in the afternoon, bullish momentum continued, driving the price higher in a choppy rise. Towards the close, it surged to 154,500 yuan per tonne, setting an intraday high, before retreating slightly to close near 153,900 yuan per tonne. The contract ultimately closed up 2.8% at 153,900 yuan per tonne, with open interest decreasing by 23,971 contracts.

In the spot market, as prices continued to fluctuate upwards, downstream buyers became increasingly cautious, with some opting for deferred pricing arrangements, whilst a small number of enterprises took delivery of warehouse receipts; conversely, among upstream lithium salt producers, willingness to sell spot lots eased somewhat, with spot selling prices anchored at levels above 153,000 yuan. Overall, market enquiries and actual transactions remained relatively subdued.

The recent fluctuating rise in lithium carbonate prices has been driven primarily by the continued improvement in near-term fundamentals. On the supply side, lithium salt manufacturers undertook concentrated maintenance in July and August, limiting the release of lithium carbonate production; on the demand side, downstream production schedules continued to grow month-on-month, with procurement demand rising steadily. Amid this supply-demand mismatch, near-term lithium carbonate inventories have been significantly drawn down, and SMM's large-sample weekly inventory data also indicates that the pace of destocking is accelerating. As strong actual conditions gradually materialise, the market's focus has shifted from earlier weak expectations to current realities; pessimism is gradually subsiding, and prices are trending upwards in line with this trend. Looking ahead to next week, close attention should continue to be paid to the pace of downstream restocking and the progress of lithium salt manufacturers' resumption of production, as these two factors are likely to determine the sustainability of the current destocking cycle and the upside potential for prices.