Chilean Copper Commission Again Lowered Its Annual Production Forecast, and the Pace of Decline in the Imported Copper Concentrate Index Slowed [SMM Spot Copper Concentrate Weekly Review]

             
On August 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$175.37/dmt, down $1.46/dmt from -$173.91/dmt in the previous period. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%.
Spot market activity this week declined WoW, with some mines launching tenders. Spot transaction side, a trader sold 10,000 mt of Carmen at an index deduction of $25/dmt, for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5, with the additional term that Ag below 20g is payable at 65%; a trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at an index deduction of $23/dmt, for October shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000-20,000 mt of Erdenet at an index deduction of $20/dmt; two other traders offered clean ore at index deductions of $24-25/dmt, for shipment from September to October; in addition, market talk indicated that a trader sold copper concentrates to a smelter at a fixed level of -$180/dmt. Mine tender side, for the previously tendered September high-arsenic ore, the transaction price on the trader side was -$260/dmt, QP: M+1/M+4, with 0.6-1g gold not payable; tenders are underway for 10,000 mt of Mantoverde for September shipment and 10,000 mt of Timok for shipment from September to October, and for 10,000 mt each of September and October BVC; tender results remain unknown. At present, against the backdrop of continued declines in the imported copper concentrate index and further widening of spot transaction deductions, some smelters have become less willing to accept pricing at index deductions of $20/dmt or above and have begun to negotiate based on fixed TCs; suppliers, however, still prefer to quote on an index deduction basis. Divergence between buyers and sellers over pricing benchmarks and reasonable deduction levels has widened, and progress on spot transactions has turned more cautious overall.
Cochilco recently lowered its 2026 Chilean copper production forecast to 5.27 million mt Cu, down 2.6% YoY, mainly due to lower grades at large mines in H1, maintenance, slower project ramp-ups, and operating constraints. From January to June 2026, China imported 4.2808 million mt of copper concentrates from Chile, down 8.26% YoY, with the import share falling to 29.3%; the supply contribution of Chilean material to the Chinese market weakened on a phased basis. However, most miners are maintaining their full-year production guidance, mainly counting on a recovery in H2 driven by the switch to higher-grade ore sections, completion of maintenance, and project ramp-ups.
Expectations for the restart of First Quantum's Cobre Panamá copper mine have increased. Panama’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Julio Moltó, recently visited Donoso, Omar Torrijos Herrera, and La Pintada, where he met with mine workers, local governments, and suppliers; the relevant recommendations will be submitted to an inter-agency committee for evaluation. The mine is currently authorized to process stockpiled ore and has supported around 3,200 direct jobs and more than 3,000 indirect jobs. As of end-June, First Quantum had processed 2.1 million mt of stockpiled ore and produced about 3,200 mt of contained copper, with the first shipment expected to take place this month.
A molten material leak incident occurred at the converter (C-Furnace) of PT Smelting's copper smelter in Gresik, East Java. Currently, there is no clear expectation for when the damaged equipment can return to service, and repairs are expected to take at least several weeks. Due to low in-plant copper anode inventory, the smelting outage has directly affected metal production on the refining side. Copper cathode shipments are expected to be disrupted in the coming weeks, and the plant is negotiating delayed deliveries with clients. In terms of capacity, PT Smelting Gresik has smelting capacity to process approximately 1.3 million dmt of copper concentrates per year, and its refining side has copper cathode capacity of 342,000 mt/year. According to Freeport-McMoRan's annual report, in 2025 the plant produced 230,300 mt of copper anode and 207,200 mt of copper cathode; due to raw material supply disruptions and maintenance, these were significantly lower than the 398,200 mt of copper anode and 335,200 mt of copper cathode in 2024.
On August 14, 2026, SMM recorded copper concentrate inventories at 11 ports totaling 770,000 mt in physical content, up 78,000 mt in physical content from August 7. The main increases came from Qingdao Port, Fangchenggang Port, and Yantai Port, with respective WoW increases of 30,000 mt, 20,000 mt, and 23,000 mt; the main decrease came from Nanjing Port, down 10,000 mt WoW.