[How 2 million tonnes of Gulf aluminium became a flashpoint for US supply security]

Published: Aug 14, 2026 09:32

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Middle East tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, a route carrying roughly 5.14 million tonnes of primary aluminium annually, about 75% of the region's total production, have damaged major Gulf smelters including EGA's Al Taweelah near Abu Dhabi (alumina output nearly halved to 602,000 tonnes in H1 2026) and Aluminium Bahrain, pushing global prices from around $2,500 to nearly $4,000 per tonne over the past year; the disruption lands at a precarious moment for the US, which has lost much of its domestic smelting capacity to rising energy costs, including the demolition of the last Intalco smelter and halted production at Hawesville, while demand holds near 12 million tonnes a year and Gulf shipments, averaging about 2 million tonnes annually, expose Washington's reliance on external suppliers for a metal now central to a Trump administration national security push covering 12 critical metals, even as a US-Gulf plan to revive domestic alumina production has stalled amid the same high energy costs that hollowed out earlier capacity.

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