SHFE tin 2609 contract pulled back on position reduction, closing at 427,490, with a capital outflow of 221 million [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

Futures

LME: LME three-month tin in electronic trading on Aug 13 closed around $55,535/mt, down $30, or 0.05%; in Asian/European trading it briefly shot up to $56,100 (+0.96%; high of $56,385), and in the US session it gave back gains amid macro sentiment — "Asia/Europe shot up, US session gave back" was highly synchronized with SHFE. LME tin inventory was 5,535 mt on Aug 13, down 55 mt on the day; registered warrants 4,685 mt, cancelled warrants 850 mt, and the cancelled-warrant ratio was 15.36% — the "squeeze undertone" of low inventory + high cancellations remained intact.

China (Aug 13 daytime session → Aug 14 morning session): SHFE tin 2609 closed the daytime session at 425,650 yuan/mt, down 3,120 yuan, or 0.73%; it opened at 432,860, with a high of 433,980 and a low of 422,050; volume was 175,729 lots, open interest was 45,587 lots, down 3,045 lots; as of the 15:00 close, overall capital outflow totaled 221 million yuan.

Inventory:

• LME tin inventory was 5,535 mt (Aug 13, -55 mt); the 15.36% cancelled-warrant ratio is approaching the 20% squeeze threshold, and deliverable supply outside China continues to tighten;

• SHFE tin warrants were 5,128 mt on Aug 13, down 71 mt on the day (Shanghai -39 to 1,907; Guangdong -32 to 3,163; Jiangsu 58 unchanged), with weekly inventory at 5,063 mt (-63 mt);

Macro: after the mild CPI print, the probability of a rate hike is 40.1%; tonight at 20:30, US July PPI + initial jobless claims will further test the "no hike" judgment

(1) July CPI was mild, and the probability of a September rate hike has dropped to 40.1%. US July CPI rose 3.4% YoY (previous 3.5%) and 0.1% MoM (previous -0.4%); core CPI rose 2.5% YoY (previous 2.6%, the lowest in over four years) and 0.2% MoM (previous 0). CME FedWatch: September no-change probability 59.9%, cumulative 25 bp rate hike probability 40.1%; by October, no-change 45.3%, cumulative 25 bp hike 44.9%, cumulative 50 bp hike 9.8%.

(2) "Fed whisperer" Timiraos: The July inflation report was in line with expectations, easing pressure on the US Fed to hike rates next month, but it did not provide much clear guidance on the longer-term interest rate outlook. Guosheng Securities’ Xiong Yuan: The 3-month annualized MoM rate of core CPI fell from 2.3% in June to 1.6%, and endogenous inflation pressure eased; taking nonfarm payrolls and CPI together, the Fed will most likely neither hike nor cut interest rates this year. The hawkishness of Warsh/Kashkari has not receded, but "urgent reasons for a rate hike are hard to find."

(3) Tonight at 20:30, the US July PPI and initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 will be the next anchor after the CPI for validating the persistence of "mild inflation"; there will be no FOMC meeting in August (the Jackson Hole symposium will be held in Wyoming in August), and before the September FOMC meeting there will also be three reports: August PCE (8/29), August nonfarm payrolls (9/4), and August CPI (9/11).

(4) Geopolitics and the AI chain: the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile (Iran denies a full reopening, and US forces reportedly fired on Iran-linked ships), and oil price uncertainty has not dissipated; Foxconn Industrial Internet’s H1 net profit rose 96%, AI server capex remains high, and tin’s "solder alpha" provides medium- and long-term support.

Fundamentals: Yinman’s full shutdown + Wa State’s 50% cap, with hard supply constraints still in place

(1) Yinman Mining’s mining, processing, and tailings operations are all suspended, and the duration of the shutdown remains undecided. Xingye Silver&Tin announced on July 31 that its mining, processing, and tailings systems have all stopped production, and the 350,000 mt surface ore buffer has become ineffective; for the core tin-silver mine with 1.65 million mt/year of mining and processing capacity, a short suspension of 1–2 months is estimated to affect about 1,000 mt of tin metal content (equivalent to 3%–4% of China’s tin concentrates); if the investigation/rectification extends into Q4, the domestic ore supply deficit will widen further.

(2) Wa State’s "50% cap" remains unchanged: the full-year production resumption ceiling is locked at 40%–50% of pre-ban levels, and full production resumption is postponed to 2027; the February water-pumping fee pass-through (a 5% increase on exports + the original 30% in-kind tax = 35% in total) raised mining costs, and the April explosion at the Panghsang explosives plant disrupted the explosives supply chain; Myanmar’s monthly tin ore exports to China recovered to above 6,000 mt in July, still only 40%–50% of normal levels.

Spot market (8/13 recap + 8/14 morning estimate)

Trading: "Spot participants are bearish and in wait-and-see mode, while overall restocking driven by essential demand has become the mainstream." After the futures market pulled back from 433,000 in the August 12 night session to around 425,000 in the August 13 daytime session, downstream and end-users made inquiries in the 422,000–425,000 range, and their willingness to fix prices picked up from earlier in the period; some solder plants and electronics companies completed small-lot transactions in the morning; however, after the afternoon futures market hovered around 425,000, follow-up buying cooled again. The entire day was "the release of rigid demand after a retreat from highs, rather than the start of active restocking"—ordinary consumer electronics and conventional solder remained in an off-season wait-and-see mode, with only rigid purchases maintained; demand for high-end solder related to AI servers and advanced packaging remained resilient but was not enough in the short term to boost spot cargo volume.

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