SHFE Lead Daily Candlestick Closed Bearish at High Levels, Upside Momentum in Futures Slowed Down Somewhat [Lead Futures Briefing]

SMM, August 13:

Intraday, the SHFE lead 2609 contract rose initially before pulling back. It opened at 15,975 yuan/mt in early trading, drifted higher during the session and at one point approached the 16,000 yuan/mt mark, then met resistance and pulled back. In the afternoon, despite some repeated fluctuations, it drifted lower near the close and eventually closed at 15,925 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; its full-day trading range was 15,910-15,990 yuan/mt, with an intraday range of 80 yuan/mt. The daily candlestick closed negative but the price center edged slightly higher, selling pressure emerged at highs, and near-term upward momentum weakened somewhat.

The SMM #1 lead average price rose 75 yuan/mt today; primary lead was offered at parity to a discount of 30-50 yuan/mt ex-works, and secondary refined lead was offered at discounts of 100-25 yuan/mt ex-works. Overall, the spot market struggled to catch up, downstream consumers mainly made just-in-time procurement, and transactions were weak; on the scrap battery side, some smelters continued to raise purchase prices, but traders had not yet followed the increase, quotations in many regions remained stable, suppliers held back from selling and stayed on the sidelines, and tight supply still provided some cost support for lead prices.

In the short term, SHFE lead may continue to consolidate at highs; fear of high prices and the retreat after a rapid rise in futures may limit short-term gains. Key focus should be on tracking the actual improvement in downstream just-in-time procurement and the pace of smelters' price adjustments.