This week, spot lithium carbonate prices showed a sustained upward trend, with the price center shifting further upward. The futures market performed strongly, with the most-traded 2609 futures contract drifting higher from 140,500-146,400 yuan/mt early in the week to 147,100-152,400 yuan/mt, hitting a mid-week high of 152,400 yuan/mt and reaching a new high for the period; however, open interest continued to decline sharply, with clear signs of funds exiting near the delivery month.
Market trading was characterized by “rising prices and sluggish trading,” with widening divergence in sentiment between upstream and downstream players. Upstream lithium chemical plants were affected by concentrated maintenance from July to August, leaving spot-order supply tight, and some producers prioritized deliveries under long-term contracts. As prices drifted higher, some lithium chemical plants showed greater willingness to sell spot orders, and their willingness to hold prices firm eased slightly, but shipment volumes remained limited. Downstream material plants maintained a cautious, wait-and-see stance on procurement, with limited willingness to chase higher prices as prices rose; they mostly consumed long-term contract supply and customer-supplied material, and some enterprises opted to take delivery of warrants but made only limited spot-order purchases. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively sluggish.
This week, China’s lithium carbonate production rebounded slightly, mainly due to the completion of maintenance at a small number of lithium chemical plants and continued high output from salt lake regions. Inventory changes: on the supply side, enterprises under maintenance still mainly ensured long-term contract supply; as prices rose, some lithium chemical plants became more willing to sell spot orders, and inventories showed a destocking trend; downstream material plants became more cautious in procurement pace and mainly consumed long-term contract supply and customer-supplied material, causing inventories to fall sharply; at the trader level, with upstream spot sales loosening and downstream buying remaining cautious, inventories were basically stable.
Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices may consolidate on a strong note, but caution is needed over pullback risk around the delivery month. Supply side, the end of maintenance at a small number of lithium chemical plants has brought marginal growth, but spot circulation remains relatively limited. Demand side, spot restocking demand due to reduced downstream long-term contract volumes is providing support to prices, but insufficient willingness to chase higher prices is limiting upside room. The current price has already exceeded 150,000 yuan/mt, and close attention needs to be paid to downstream players’ true acceptance of high prices. Going forward, close attention should still be paid to changes in open interest of the 2609 contract before delivery, downstream acceptance of prices above 150,000 yuan/mt, progress in lithium chemical plant maintenance recovery, and warrant destocking.
