【JSW Steel’s July output rises 3% y/y, while Vijayanagar blast furnace restart supports coking coal demand】

The most-traded HRC contract moved sideways today, closing at 3,233, down 0.34% DoD. Supply side, HRC production this week was 3.0613 million mt, up 12,500 mt WoW. Newly added production resumptions increased, and production next week is still expected to grow, though the absolute level remains low. Demand side, in the off-season, end-user buying was mainly at low prices, and speculative sentiment was weak. Raw material side, the fuel shortage in Mongolia has eased, weakening the upward driver for coking coal and coke. Although the demand side is beginning to show expectations of a bottom, the short-term impact from sentiment is clearly larger, and upward cost support is fading. Overall, affected by the typhoon, HRC inventory saw temporary destocking this week, but the market generally expects that the inventory inflection point has not appeared during the off-season; therefore, futures did not trade on this information. In the short term, sheets & plates are likely to consolidate in line with costs. Watch for destocking in coking coal and coke as Mongolia's fuel issue is resolved, and for China's supply recovery.

[India] The Indian domestic steel market showed a mildly positive but cautious sentiment on Thursday. Prices edged higher in Mandi Gobindgarh, while Mumbai remained relatively stable, indicating limited improvement in market activity. Buying interest remains cautious with monsoon conditions continuing to weigh on construction demand. In northern Mandi Gobindgarh, HMS 1&2 (80:20) edged up by at 2.10USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (33,900 INR/tonne). Billet prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mandi to (42,400INR/tonne). Meanwhile, Mumbai HMS 1&2 (80:20) unchanged delivered Mumbai (31,000INR/tonne). Rebar prices up 1.05USD/tonne delivered Mumbai to (47,200INR/tonne).

SMM has learned that the navigable water depth at the Kaub gauge on Germany's Rhine River dropped to 12 centimetres on August 12, falling below the previous historic low of 25 centimetres recorded in 2018. Most vessels are now unable to transit this bottleneck section, and ships still operating on the northern stretch are typically running at approximately 20% of their cargo capacity. Under normal conditions, roughly 24,000 tonnes of coal and iron ore are transported daily from Rotterdam to Duisburg via the inland waterway. Current daily inland waterway volumes have fallen to approximately 14,500 tonnes, representing a shortfall of around 9,500 tonnes per day against the normal level. Local enterprises are planning to arrange three return rail movements per week through to end-September, with each run transporting approximately 2,000 tonnes of coal to the HKM steelworks in Duisburg, in order to partially offset the inland waterway capacity shortfall.