【SMM Analysis】Ternary Cathode Prices See Limited Upward Momentum

This week, ternary cathode material prices recovered slightly. On the raw material front, nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate prices continued to decline, while lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices rebounded somewhat. However, overall cathode material quotations changed little and remained at cyclical lows.

In terms of transaction sentiment, some cathode and battery manufacturers only made small-batch need-based restocking purchases, with limited volumes. The market as a whole still holds expectations of further price declines in the near term. On the payable front, no adjustments have been made recently to payables for nickel, cobalt, or lithium. Given the upcoming reinstatement of the lithium battery consumption tax, battery cell manufacturers may shift some cost pressures upstream, leaving limited room for upward payable adjustments.

On the demand side, August orders showed stable growth. Stockpiling for new models ahead of the traditional peak season in September and October drove domestic cathode order demand, while overseas markets—particularly Europe—continued to show strong vehicle sales, further supporting ternary demand. On the consumer market front, supply remained largely stable through long-term contracts, while spot contract transactions remained subdued, with no clear signs of demand recovery yet.