SHFE Lead Shot Up, Narrowed and Closed Flat, Spot Lead Trading Weak, Consolidation Awaits Demand Guidance [Lead Futures Review]

SMM August 12 News:

Intraday, the SHFE lead 2609 contract rebounded from consolidation around 15,855 yuan/mt, touched a high of 15,925 yuan/mt, and closed at 15,905 yuan/mt, with the closing price flat compared to the previous trading day. Trading volume was 49,552 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,351 lots to 45,172 lots, as funds exited approaching delivery. The full-day candlestick closed as a doji after consecutive gains, with intraday prices shooting up then pulling back. After the rise, funds took profits and exited, the willingness to rush to buy at highs became cautious, and support strength at lows remains to be seen.

Spot side, the SMM #1 lead average price rose by 25 yuan/mt. Secondary refined lead was at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to parity compared to the SMM #1 lead average price, downstream users resisted high prices, and actual transactions were thin. Scrap EV batteries followed with a rise of 50-100 yuan/mt. Hydropower batteries showed regional divergence, with quotes in south China rising and those in the north holding steady. Recycled material supply was generally tight, and traders held back from selling, supporting the cost side of secondary lead.

In the short term, SHFE lead may continue to consolidate at highs. The upside was constrained by bulls taking profits, downstream caution at highs, and weak spot transactions. The downside was supported by tight scrap battery supply and suppliers holding prices firm. Key focus is on tracking actual improvements in downstream just-in-time procurement.