【U.S. Power Demand Seen Hitting Fresh Records in 2026 and 2027, but Coal’s Generation Share to Decline】

Published: Aug 12, 2026 10:02

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. electricity consumption to rise from 4,195 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,268 billion kWh in 2026 and 4,391 billion kWh in 2027, driven mainly by growing electricity use from artificial-intelligence data centers and broader electrification among households and businesses.

However, higher power demand is not expected to translate directly into stronger coal demand. EIA forecasts coal’s share of power generation to decline from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and 15% in 2027, while renewables’ share rises from about 24% to 27% and natural gas remains at 40%. The changing generation mix suggests that incremental U.S. power demand may benefit natural gas and renewables more than thermal coal, creating structural pressure on U.S. coal demand and prices. The actual impact will depend on gas prices, coal-plant utilization and renewable generation.

EIA also cut its forecast for Texas power-load growth in 2027 to 6% from 14% previously after the state announced a pause on new data-center development. Nevertheless, nationwide U.S. electricity consumption is still expected to reach new records in both 2026 and 2027.

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