SMM August 11 News:
Today, SHFE aluminum 2609 contract opened at 24,180 yuan/mt, reached a high of 24,260 yuan/mt, a low of 24,095 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 24,250 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.89%. Trading volume was 131,200 lots, open interest 239,400 lots, with a daily position change of -1,415 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (24,010), MA10 (23,821), MA30 (23,314.17), and MA60 (23,720.75). The moving average system shows a bullish alignment, and the uptrend continues. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (188.92) and DEA (76.79) are both above the zero line and continue to diverge upward, with the histogram expanding to 224.25, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 131,200 lots was below MA5 (134,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting limited willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise.
SMM Comment: Differences remain on the Middle East situation. Although the US Fed did not raise rates in July, its overall stance remains hawkish. The fundamental deficit persists, and aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note.
Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,743 yuan/mt, a low of 2,711 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,724 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.93%. Trading volume was 156,100 lots, open interest 324,900 lots, with a daily position change of -28,277 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (2,696.2), MA10 (2,670.7), and MA30 (2,696.4), but remains below MA60 (2,764.7). Short-term moving averages are in bullish alignment, while medium and long-term moving averages still exert resistance. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (29.51) and DEA (17.39) have both turned positive and are diverging upward, with the histogram expanding to 24.24, indicating gradually strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 156,100 lots was below MA5 (203,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting declining market participation. The daily position change of -28,277 lots, a significant reduction, indicates clear bearish liquidation.
SMM Comment: This week, spot alumina prices continued to drift lower, maintaining a downward trend. Supply side, production this week rebounded slightly WoW, mainly as enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, gradually restoring output to normal levels, with overall supply increasing. Demand side saw no significant change, with downstream procurement pace remaining stable, failing to provide effective growth support. Ex-China, the issue of Indonesia's alumina export restrictions has been resolved. Alumina resources previously suspended due to containing rare earth elements have now been approved for re-export, which will supplement the Chinese market going forward. Looking ahead to next week, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined: On one hand, an alumina refinery in south China plans maintenance, which will tighten regional supply and provide some support to prices; on the other hand, new vessels will continue to arrive at ports, providing ongoing supply replenishment. Under these two forces, overall inventory is expected to remain at current levels, with the pace of inventory buildup slowing down. Overall, driven by sentiment fluctuations on the futures market and the positive impact of short-term maintenance, the decline in alumina prices is expected to temporarily halt, and prices will consolidate within the current range in the near term.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with SMM.]
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