【Geo Energy’s TRA Ramp-Up May Cap Further Gains in Indonesian Low-CV Coal Prices】

Geo Energy sold 3.6 million tonnes of coal in 1H2026, while revenue and net profit both fell 28% year on year as PT Tanah Bumbu Resources (TBR) and PT Sungai Danau Jaya (SDJ) approached the later stages of their mine lives and PT Triaryani (TRA) had yet to fully ramp up. The earnings decline was therefore mainly volume-driven rather than caused by weaker coal prices. During the same period, the Indonesian Coal Index 4 (ICI4), a benchmark for Indonesian low-calorific-value thermal coal, rose from US$47.91/t to US$58.13/t, lifting Geo Energy’s average selling price from US$46.26/t to US$53.88/t.

The key market focus now shifts to supply growth in 2H2026. With PT Marga Bara Jaya’s (MBJ) transport and port infrastructure operational, TRA’s coal evacuation capacity is expected to improve, supporting Geo Energy’s full-year production target of 11.5 – 12.5 million tonnes and further expansion thereafter. If supply growth from TRA and other Indonesian mines outpaces import demand from China, India and Southeast Asia, stronger buyer bargaining power could limit further upside in ICI4 and FOB Indonesia low-CV thermal coal prices. However, Geo Energy’s cash cost has risen from US$36.07/t to US$40.58/t due to higher fuel costs, strip ratios and haulage distances, which may provide some cost support to prices.