Metals broadly rose, with COMEX and SHFE gold, palladium, and iron ore up over 1%; SHFE silver gained for six straight days; the Europe container freight index fell more than 6% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM, August 11:

On the metals front:

As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.61%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%. SHFE lead gained 0.86%. SHFE zinc rose 0.47%. SHFE tin fell 0.29%. SHFE nickel dropped 0.59%.

Additionally, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.38%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.78%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract edged up 0.36%. The most-traded silicon metal contract gained 0.76%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.46%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore gained 1.47%, rebar edged up, and HRC fell 0.12%. Stainless steel dropped 0.82%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.47%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 0.45%.

Regarding base metals on the overseas market, as of 11:40 am, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper gained 0.48%, and LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc all rose within 0.2%. LME tin dipped 0.12%. LME nickel eased 0.32%.

For precious metals, as of 11:40 am, COMEX gold rose 1.37%, and COMEX silver gained 1.12%. On the domestic market for precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.88%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended its gains from the previous five trading days, up another 3.08%.

Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 0.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract surged 1.92%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe service) futures contract tumbled 6.11% to 1,536.5 points.

As of 11:40 am on August 11, some futures midday quotes:

Spot Market and Fundamentals

Copper: In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at an average discount of 280 yuan/mt to a discount of 220 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 250 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction price averaged 108,300 yuan/mt, up 640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day...

Macro Front

China:

[PBOC's reverse repo operation resulted in a net drain of 46.5 billion yuan on the day] China's central bank did not conduct reverse repo operations today. With 46.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net drain of 46.5 billion yuan was realized. (Jin10 Data App)

[China Index Academy: Nationwide court-auctioned residential property transactions surged over 40% YoY in the first seven months] Data released by the China Index Academy showed that from January to July, 245,000 court-auctioned residential properties were listed nationwide, up 23.1% YoY; 89,000 properties were sold, up 42.7% YoY; the clearance rate was 36.2%, up 4.97 percentage points from the previous year; and the total transaction value reached 96.975 billion yuan, up 21.04% YoY. The average transaction price for court-auctioned residential properties from January to July was 8,081 yuan/sq m, down 9.1% YoY. (Jin10 Data App)

US Dollar:

As of 11:40 am, the US dollar index dipped 0.03% to 99.78. Cleveland Fed Chairman Hammack stated that inflation has yet to return to the target level and that the Fed may need to implement multiple rate hikes. She noted that a single 25-basis-point hike "would not have a significant impact on the economy," but she declined to prejudge the specific number of hikes or the terminal rate. Hammack believes the current 3.50%-3.75% rate range does not constitute a significant constraint on the economy, and enterprises have not curtailed growth investments due to high rates, hence "now is the time to act." She remarked that the longer the wait, the harder it will be to bring inflation back to 2%. Hammack also stressed that there are no obvious problems in the job market currently, and the July employment data will not alter her focus on inflation. She believes markets can only assist the Fed, not substitute for its actions. Hammack dissented at the Fed's July policy meeting against holding rates steady, favoring a 25-basis-point hike.

According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates steady in September is 48.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 51.2%. The probability of holding rates steady by October is 34.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 50.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 14.7%. (Jin10 Data App)

US President Trump stated on Monday that he has only had one "brief" conversation with Fed Chairman Warsh since his inauguration, denying reports of frequent communication between the two. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said last week that the two "frequently discuss economic issues," but other informed sources indicated that the calls are neither regular nor frequent. This follows earlier reports that Trump had communicated with Warsh multiple times since his confirmation as Fed Chairman in May, with Trump inquiring about Warsh's economic outlook forecasts and views. Trump reiterated his desire for lower interest rates but stated he "100% supports" Warsh and emphasized that the Fed's policy decisions are made by the Board of Governors as a whole. (Jin10 Data App)

Other Currencies:

TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold its interest rate steady at 4.35%, a baseline scenario largely aligned with market consensus and overnight index swap pricing, which shows a near-zero probability of a rate hike today. This implies that the rate decision itself carries very limited surprise risk for the Australian dollar or rates market. The more informative signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the decision. TD Securities expects that, despite weaker-than-expected trimmed mean CPI data, the RBA will resist significantly downgrading its inflation forecasts, citing elevated oil prices as a persistent upside risk to the inflation outlook. A combination of a "confirmed hold" coupled with "cautious, rather than dovish, forecast revisions" suggests a relatively mild market reaction. Any surprise is more likely to stem from the tone of the forecast language, rather than the rate decision itself. (Jin10 Data App)

Citing informed sources, Jiji Press reports that the Bank of Japan, following its rate hike in June, may consider another hike at its next policy meeting on September 17-18 to address mounting inflation risks. Japan's prices could rise further due to surging AI-related demand, a sharply weaker yen, and higher crude oil prices. Previously, many financial market participants had expected the BOJ to raise rates roughly once every six months. However, according to the summary of opinions from the BOJ's latest policy-setting meeting held on July 30-31, some Policy Board members already indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member stated that "the pace of policy rate increases could be faster than markets expect," while another said the BOJ needs to "accelerate the pace of adjustment to the degree of monetary easing." (Jin10 Data App)

Data:

Data to be released today include China's July M2 money supply YoY rate (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment figures for the week ending July 25, the US July existing home sales annualized rate, and the RBA interest rate decision for August 11, among others. Additionally, the RBA will announce its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Crude Oil:

As of 11:40 am, oil prices on both exchanges edged up, with WTI crude up 0.07% and Brent crude up 0.06%. Renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran talks supported prices.

Trump publicly criticized Iran's war reparations demand during negotiations, rapidly cooling market optimism for a swift deal and the reopening of strategic waterways. Citing CCTV, Wall Street CN mentioned that US President Trump posted on social media on August 10, local time, stating he had noticed Iran is seeking compensation for losses suffered in the military conflict over the past five months. Trump said: "I am similarly demanding compensation from Iran, and I have instructed my representatives to explicitly include this demand in all future negotiations." Meanwhile, Iran sent continuous signals of strengthening its security and political apparatus on the same day. Notably, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw another accelerated decline last week, dropping to its lowest level since 1983 and approaching the widely recognized operational floor of 250 million barrels. If the current weekly drawdown pace persists, the SPR will exhaust its buffer capacity within weeks. (Wall Street CN)

Trump extended the Jones Act waiver, which allows foreign vessels to transport oil and other goods within the US, by 90 days but added new restrictions. Amid disruptions to crude oil flows and elevated fuel costs due to the US-Iran conflict, Trump maintained the relevant waiver while narrowing its scope. The new exemption will focus specifically on energy shipments, including gasoline, jet fuel, crude oil, naphtha, LNG, soybean oil, and fertilizers. In the future, the Pentagon will need to consult with the US Maritime Administration before deciding whether to exempt individual voyages. The White House stated that the waiver helps ensure continued access to critical resources for the US military and key industries, and increases domestic shipments of products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. However, US shipbuilders and some lawmakers argue that the waiver undermines the Jones Act's protections for the domestic shipping industry. (Jin10 Data App)

Spot Market at a Glance:

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Midday updates for other spot metals will be published later; refresh to follow~