Wafer Transaction Range Converges, Solar Cell Prices Rise [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM August 11:

Wafer

Prices: Market prices: 18X wafers at 0.799-0.824 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.897-0.915 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.097-1.113 yuan/piece. Wafer prices inched up slightly. A top-tier integrated player suspended quoting and shipments. Other enterprises maintained their quotes, but most of them controlled shipment volumes. The transaction price range narrowed notably, and low-price orders definitively disappeared.

Production: According to SMM’s latest survey, August production is expected to decline by 1-2 GW MoM. Although production cuts have continued for two consecutive months, overall production remains relatively high compared with demand. Recently, as wafer prices fell below cash cost, top-tier players with excessive inventory pressure chose to cut production in response. In addition, the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing have been adjusted.

Inventory: Wafer inventory buildup showed divergent trends. Inventory at top-tier players has exceeded reasonable levels. Demand for bonded zone inventory orders to India has weakened marginally, and several African countries have emerged as top export destinations.

Solar Cell

Prices:

The solar cell market saw a notable rally today, as the earlier sentiment of holding prices firm materialized. The transaction center for 183 rose to 0.27-0.276 yuan/W, with sporadic high quotes of 0.28 yuan/W emerging. The mainstream range for 210N rose to 0.262-0.27 yuan/W, with top quotes touching 0.275 yuan/W. The transaction range for 210R was synchronously pushed up to 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Top-tier players’ 210N and 210R formats have already seen small volumes of actual orders at 0.27 yuan/W, driving overall futures sentiment to strengthen significantly. However, the sustainability of the rally remains to be confirmed. Going forward, close attention should be paid to downstream module order intake strength and the pace of upstream production resumption. Once end-use demand loses momentum, prices risk a retreat after the rapid rise.

Production:

The industry’s overall August production schedule has slightly contracted compared with July. Many producers anticipate weak downstream demand this month and proactively scaled back production scale. At this stage, production cuts are only at the planning level. The final actual operating rate needs continuous follow-up observation and verification.

Inventory:

This week, total industry inventory edged down WoW. Among formats, 183 and 210N achieved notable destocking effects. In contrast, 210R continued to accumulate significant inventory. The divergent inventory pattern among formats remained pronounced.

PV Film

Prices

PV-grade EVA:

Currently, China’s spot PV-grade EVA resin mainstream transaction range is 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt. EVA resin prices remained stable for now. On the cost side, the recent slight edging down of ethylene prices has further weakened EVA cost support. On the supply side, as petrochemical plants have gradually switched to producing PV-grade materials, the previous tight supply situation has eased further. The weekly settlement prices from leading petrochemical plants are about to be released today, and this round of settlement prices is expected to move sideways within the current mainstream transaction range, with little room for significant adjustments.

PV Film:

Current prices for 420 g/m² clear EVA film are 5.42-5.5 yuan/m², and 380 g/m² EPE film prices are 5.28-5.36 yuan/m². This month’s monthly long-term agreement prices for film have been finalized, with long-term agreement prices for leading module manufacturers remaining stable this month, while most spot orders in the market are negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Upstream PV-grade EVA resin has been running steadily in the short term, leading to limited fluctuations in film production costs and no significant changes in spot order quotes.

Production: PV-grade EVA production pulled back slightly this week due to some units switching to non-PV materials. Film manufacturers' August production schedules are expected to be about 6%-7% higher MoM compared to July.

Inventory: Petrochemical plant inventories remained at relatively low levels, with production output prioritized for long-term agreements and limited spot cargo in circulation. Overall inventory pressure at film manufacturers is manageable.