【Heavy Rain Disrupts Coal Supply in India, Potentially Supporting Thermal Coal Prices】

Heavy rainfall in coal-producing regions including Telangana and Maharashtra has disrupted mining operations and rail transportation, reducing coal deliveries to Karnataka. The number of coal rakes reaching the state has fallen from around 11 per day under normal conditions to about five to six per day, significantly slowing coal arrivals at power plants.

At the same time, Karnataka’s electricity demand remains elevated at close to 300 million units per day, while hydropower generation has yet to fully recover, leaving the state relatively dependent on coal-fired generation. If heavy rainfall and rail disruptions persist, power plant inventories could decline and restocking pressure may increase, potentially supporting regional spot thermal coal demand and prices. However, coal inventories at local power plants remain adequate for now, limiting the risk of an immediate fuel shortage.