Zinc Calcine TCs Continued to Fall in July; What's the Outlook for August?[SMM Analysis]

Published: Aug 10, 2026 13:51

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At end-July, zinc calcine TCs declined, with tight raw material supply and elevated procurement costs, combined with production cuts at some enterprises, putting market prices under pressure. Entering August, the tightness on the raw material side persists, but with weakening demand and profit constraints on enterprises, the room for further decline in TCs may be relatively limited.

SMM August 10 Flash:
At end-July, zinc calcine TCs declined, with tight raw material supply and elevated procurement costs, combined with production cuts at some enterprises, putting market prices under pressure. Entering August, the tightness on the raw material side persists, but with weakening demand and profit constraints on enterprises, the room for further decline in TCs may be relatively limited.

In July, zinc calcine TCs continued to weaken. On the raw material side, affected by production cuts at steel mills, supply of major raw materials such as steel dust and low-grade zinc oxide tightened somewhat, while market circulation of raw materials was low, keeping procurement costs for zinc calcine enterprises elevated. Under sustained profit pressure, some enterprises voluntarily reduced their production schedules, and zinc calcine output fell further in July.

On the demand side, zinc concentrate TCs remained at low levels, and some smelters increased zinc calcine purchases as a supplement to mine-side raw materials, providing some support to demand. However, entering the traditional consumption off-season, downstream demand was weak, profit margins for secondary zinc enterprises were limited, and purchasing enthusiasm declined, intensifying the supply-demand game.

Looking ahead to August, the tight raw material supply situation is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term, and production cost pressure on enterprises remains significant. Meanwhile, overall demand-side support is limited, and zinc calcine TCs still face some downward pressure. However, as TCs continue to decline, enterprise profits are further squeezed, reducing the willingness to accept further price cuts. It is expected that zinc calcine TCs will remain weak in August, but with limited downside room.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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