[SMM Iron Ore Imports Analysis] Global iron ore shipments surged 14.18% in July, but China’s imports fell 4% due to typhoons.

According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 108.085 million mt of iron ore and concentrates in July, down 4.09% MoM and up 3.50% YoY. In January-July, cumulative imports of iron ore and concentrates reached 736.841 million mt, up 5.9% YoY.

Looking back at July,global iron ore shipments pulled back gradually after the Q1 quarter-end push for target, only rebounding at month-end. According to customs data, China's imports of iron ore and concentrates in July stood at 108.085 million mt, edging down 4.08% MoM. SMM statistics show that global shipments in the month reached 156.60 million mt, up 14.18% MoM, with notable growth from both Australia and Brazil. Affected by typhoons, fluctuations in China's port arrival pace were significantly larger than those in shipments, with the month showing a low-then-high pattern, as total port arrivals grew 17.04% MoM to 134.16 million mt. The phased increase in shipments and port arrivals in July was more attributable to short-term factors such as statistical cycles and weather disruptions, rather than growth in supply capability. The first week of July's statistical period (June 27 to July 3) was one week more than in June, and the concentrated replenishment of port arrivals at month-end caused by weather also contributed to the increase.

Looking ahead to August,Brazil enters its peak shipping season in Q3, while Australian mines had a low first month of the new fiscal year and are expected to recover month by month. Mainstream ores will provide a positive boost to port arrivals in August; however, West Africa remains in its rainy season, and a substantial rebound in non-mainstream shipments will have to wait until Q4. Meanwhile, with frequent typhoons recently, the port arrival pace is expected to be disrupted, potentially leading to short-term declines. On the demand side, weather conditions continue to suppress downstream operating rates, which will in turn keep iron ore demand in check. Furthermore, the statistical period in August will be one week shorter than in July on a MoM basis. Therefore, iron ore shipments and port arrivals to China in August are expected to decline MoM from July.