US non-farm payrolls data weakness puts US dollar under pressure, approaching delivery shift increases demand, copper prices drift higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Monday, August 10, 2026
Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $14,141/mt. After wild swings early in the session, it touched a high of $14,173/mt. The copper price center then dropped straight down, dipping to $14,006/mt near the session's end and finally closing at $14,022/mt, down 0.5%. Trading volume reached 19,800 lots, and open interest was 258,000 lots, an increase of 3,254 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bearish position building. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,010 yuan/mt. It rose to 108,140 yuan/mt at the start of the session before its price center shifted lower on consolidation, touching a low of 107,130 yuan/mt near the session's end and finally closing at 107,160 yuan/mt, down 0.8%. Trading volume was 45,000 lots, and open interest was 215,000 lots, a decrease of 6,056 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation. [SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) According to the BNAmericas website, investment in critical minerals could add BRL192.1 billion ($37.6 billion) to the country's economy over the next 25 years. A study by the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil (ACCB) also estimates this would generate 750,000 new jobs. The report contrasts two paths for critical mineral development in Brazil.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of August 7, the SHFE copper 2608 contract retreated after a rapid rise before stabilizing and rebounding. It opened at 107,750 yuan/mt, rose continuously after the open, and hit a session high of 108,600 yuan/mt. The price then pulled back to 108,210 yuan/mt before stabilizing, edging up to close at 108,400 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between delivery months ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 170 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract stood between a loss of 1,620 yuan/mt and a loss of 1,520 yuan/mt. The sales sentiment index for copper cathode in the Shanghai region was 3.19, up 0.05 MoM, while the procurement sentiment index was 3.04, up 0.19 MoM. Historical data can be queried in the database. Looking ahead to today, with the delivery date approaching, SHFE spot copper prices continued to rise, and the backward spread showed signs of widening further. Some suppliers had rollover needs, which may increase the circulation of low-priced cargoes in the market and put pressure on spot premiums. During the day, some downstream users made just-in-time procurement before the weekend, while some enterprises had invoice requirements, leading to improved market transactions compared to August 6. Although suppliers still marked down their quotes, the overall range of price cuts was limited. Supply side, available cargoes had not yet become significantly looser, and the supply of some brands remained limited, providing some support to the downside of premiums. Taken together, against the backdrop of rollover pressure as the delivery date nears, a widening backwardation spread, and just-in-time downstream demand, spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to be quoted at a discount today, with the discount range contingent on the spread trend and market cargo movement.
(2) Guangdong: On August 7, Guangdong’s #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 160 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the prior trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at parity, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,355 yuan/mt, up 455 yuan/mt from the prior trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,245 yuan/mt, up 425 yuan/mt. The procurement sentiment index for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.28, down 0.02 from the prior trading day, while the selling sentiment index was 2.85, up 0.02 (historical data can be accessed in the database). Overall, copper prices hit a new high, downstream procurement was sluggish, but suppliers held prices firm for shipments, and spot trades were sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On August 7, the average warrant price fell $3/mt from the previous trading day to $101/mt (price range $95-107/mt); the average B/L price fell $3/mt to $97/mt (price range $90-104/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell $2/mt to $65/mt (price range $60-70/mt). Quotations reference cargoes arriving from August to early September.
(4) Secondary copper: On August 7, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 108,400 yuan/mt, up 670 yuan/mt from the prior trading day; the average spot premium was 70 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt DoD; copper scrap prices remained unchanged DoD; the selling sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.76, and the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.01; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,685 yuan/mt, up 660 yuan/mt DoD. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,970 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, copper prices repeatedly hit new recent highs. Amid continuous selling by copper scrap suppliers, their remaining inventories were low, so traders needed to restock recently. However, due to high copper prices, traders were not willing to make large purchases.
Prices: On the macro front, US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, showing mixed employment data. Trump initiated the process to remove Fed Governor Cook and stated that interest rates are not solely determined by Warsh. Geopolitically, Trump postponed military action against Iran, but Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The weak payrolls put the US dollar under pressure, but controversy over the Fed’s independence and Middle East uncertainties caused copper prices to shoot up and then pull back. Fundamentally, on the supply side, available material has not notably loosened, but the rollover demand approaching delivery is expected to boost circulation of low-priced cargoes, keeping overall supply tight. On the demand side, constrained by the off-season and high copper prices, downstream users only made just-in-time procurement. Overall, copper prices were expected to drift higher today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This document does not constitute a direct recommendation for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]