Prices:
Rare Earth Oxides: Cerium oxide FOB was quoted at $2,120-2,210/mt, stable for now. Terbium oxide FOB was quoted at $1,205-1,293/kg, down $10/kg. Praseodymium oxide FOB was quoted at $126-129/kg, down $2/kg. Dysprosium oxide FOB was quoted at $279-331/kg. Neodymium oxide FOB was quoted at $161-193/kg, down $2/mt. Cerium oxide CIF (Port of Rotterdam) was quoted at $2,827-2,837/mt. Lanthanum oxide FOB was quoted at $1,023-1,083/mt, stable for now.
Rare Earth Metals: Neodymium metal FOB was quoted at $156-168/kg, down $2/kg. Terbium metal FOB was quoted at $1,503-1,587/kg, down $20/kg. Praseodymium metal FOB was quoted at $162-170/kg, down $2/mt. Yttrium metal FOB was quoted at $33-38/kg. Lanthanum metal FOB price was $3-3.1/kg, stable for now.
Transactions: Some FOB quotes were lowered due to the impact of domestic prices, but with limited rigid demand, transactions were difficult to conclude. Heavy rare earth prices remained at high levels, with offers merely maintained due to policy impacts.
Africa: Kameelburg Resources in Namibia Grew Another 35%, Japanese Capital Enters Lofdal
ASX-listed Aldoro Resources updated the JORC resource estimate for its Kameelburg niobium-rare earth-strontium project in Namibia, with total resources rising to 804.5 million mt at a 2.90% TREO equivalent grade, a 35% increase from 597.1 million mt in May 2026. Since the initial disclosure of 279.9 million mt in August 2025, four upgrades have been completed in less than 12 months. This update delineated an indicated resource of 162.1 million mt (grading 2.86% TREO equivalent) for the first time, with inferred resources at 642.4 million mt. A high-grade subset, defined at a 1% TREO cut-off grade, comprises 414.8 million mt grading 3.32%, with the indicated portion containing approximately 290,000 mt of neodymium-praseodymium oxide at an average grade of 0.18%. The company stated that establishing the indicated resource represents a significant de-risking milestone, and the next step will be to continue upgrading inferred resources to indicated status through Phase 3 drilling. Meanwhile, Toyota Tsusho announced on Jul 30 that it had established a subsidiary, TJ Namibia Rare Earths, in Namibia. JOGMEC committed to investing up to 5.46 billion yen (around $33.4 million), with the first investment completed on Jul 23. The entity will advance the Lofdal heavy rare earth project in northwestern Namibia. JOGMEC and Namibia Critical Metals initiated this project in 2020, and Toyota Tsusho took over a portion of JOGMEC’s 40% option interest in Mar 2026, planning to make a final investment decision during the fiscal year from Apr 2026 to Mar 2027. The Lofdal deposit contains heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium, used in permanent magnets for EV motors. Additionally, ASX-listed AuKing Mining announced a proposed acquisition of a 100% interest in the Machinga heavy rare earth project in southern Malawi, with a staged payment structure including AUD5,000 exclusivity fee, AUD750,000 in cash, AUD750,000 in ordinary shares (30 million shares at AUD0.025 each), and AUD1.25 million in milestone shares.
Japan: 80% of Manufacturing Executives View Rare Earth Procurement as a Management or Existential Risk
Resilire, a Japanese supply chain risk management service provider, conducted a survey in June targeting 400 executives from manufacturing sectors including materials and parts producers. Kyodo News released the results on Aug 3: 43.8% of respondents identified unease over rare earth procurement as an "important management issue," while 36.2% viewed it as a "major risk to business continuity," totaling 80%. The proportion identifying "excessive dependence on China" as an issue was 45%. Regarding the procurement outlook for the coming year, 51.7% of respondents answered it would "worsen significantly" or "worsen slightly," while only 17% believed it would "improve significantly" or "improve slightly." Nikkei Asia data showed China's rare earth exports to Japan plummeted over 80% YoY in Mar and Apr 2026, with exports of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide dropping to zero from Jan to Apr. Following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan, China tightened export controls on dual-use items to Japan in Jan 2026. To address shortages, Shin-Etsu Chemical plans to invest about 35 billion yen in a rare earth refinery and reached a partnership with Daikin, the world’s largest air conditioner manufacturer, in April to recover and recycle rare earth magnets from commercial air conditioner compressors starting in 2027. Daikin, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Hitachi, and Tokyo Eco-Recycle jointly launched a rare earth magnet recycling initiative. Japan also passed a circular economy action plan, targeting combined public and private investment in critical mineral and metal recycling to reach approximately 1 trillion yen by 2030.
Malaysia: Considering Allowing Some Unprocessed Rare Earth Exports, with Conditions on Investment and Tech Transfer
Malaysian Deputy Minister of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability, Syed Ibrahim Syed Noh, confirmed that authorities are assessing the feasibility of relaxing the ban on unprocessed rare earth exports in place since 2024, given that investors from the US, Australia, France, India, and others "have been knocking on the door," but declined to give a timetable. Malaysia has inferred rare earth reserves of 16.1 million mt, previously valued by the government at 970 billion ringgit (about $237 billion). Syed made it clear that any new exports would come with conditions, including linkages to inbound investment and technology transfer, and should serve R&D outside Malaysia. The government also stressed that the policy goal is "diversification" to avoid excessive reliance on single-source technologies. Malaysia is already a rare earth refining base for Australia's Lynas Rare Earths, and the country is mapping its rare earth deposits, studying how to mine them without harming biodiversity.
US: Energy Fuels Advances Investment Decisions for Donald and Other Projects, Lockheed Martin and NioCorp Sign Scandium Supply MOU
Energy Fuels CEO Ross Bhappu stated during the Q2 earnings call that a final investment decision on the Donald rare earth project in Australia is expected as early as Q3, with financing efforts concentrated there. He plans to travel to Australia to advance negotiations. Progress on the Vara Mada project in Madagascar depends on reaching a stability agreement with the government, while the Bahia project in Brazil restarted drilling under an exploration permit granted in 2025, with a resource estimate expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin and NioCorp announced on Aug 4 the signing of a non-binding supply MOU covering the purchase of up to 15 mt of scandium oxide annually for the next 10 years. Material can be delivered as oxide or aluminum-scandium alloy. NioCorp plans to produce approximately 100 mt of scandium oxide annually at its Elk Creek project in Nebraska upon financing and completion, and is seeking up to $800 million in debt financing from the Export-Import Bank of the United States. It has already produced aluminum-scandium master alloy containing 4% scandium in the US using market-source scandium oxide. This agreement follows their Oct 2025 "Skunk Works" collaboration on developing scandium-containing aluminum alloy parts for fighter jets. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), global scandium oxide consumption in 2025 was about 60 mt, up 50% from 40 mt in 2024.
Capital Markets and Policy: US Rare Earth Magnet Supply Chain Financing Draws Attention, Trump Pushes for Domestic "Making Magnets"
Trump, in an interview with Steve Grubber, stated that under the mineral agreement signed with Ukraine, the US "could take almost all of those things, at any time." Domestically, Trump continues to pressure defense contractors to reduce external dependence on critical minerals and openly calls on US companies to "make magnets" to rebuild the defense industrial base. Against this backdrop, Vulcan Elements and USA Rare Earth have faced scrutiny regarding politically connected investors and advisors potentially influencing hundreds of millions of dollars in federal grants. The White House, Pentagon, and the companies involved deny any undue influence, while Democratic lawmakers have requested more information on the grant process. Rare Earth Exchanges advocates that the US must combine strategic urgency with transparent, performance-based fund allocation. ASX-listed Ionic Rare Earths has secured binding financing commitments of $8 million, including a $2 million strategic investment from US-based Argentem Creek Partners and a $500,000 investment from company directors. The funds are primarily for its Belfast project in the UK, building a demonstration plant and commercial recycling technology, targeting an annual production of 400 mt of high-purity separated magnetic rare earth oxides.
