Lead prices fell to a nearly three-year low, and smelters’ holding back from selling pushed spot refined lead from a discount to a premium [SMM Refined Lead Spot Market Weekly Review].

This week (August 3-7, 2026), the SMM #1 lead weekly average price was 15,425 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW, with prices falling to the lowest level since late June 2023. At the beginning of the week, lead prices plunged sharply, market risk-aversion sentiment clearly heated up, and procurement sentiment among downstream enterprises diverged. Some enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach due to concerns of further declines, while others restocked for essential needs at lower prices. Overall spot market transactions were mixed. As lead prices fell to lows, primary lead smelters' sentiment to hold back from selling at low prices strengthened. Some enterprises suspended external quotations and shipments, and the few that maintained shipments also had firm quotations. Main producing area primary lead quotations were at premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory. In secondary lead, most smelters also suspended shipments to wait and see, resulting in reduced availability of circulating cargoes. A few smelters quoted at premiums of 25-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-factory, with a small number posting premiums as high as 125 yuan/mt. After mid-week, as news of maintenance and production cuts at primary and secondary lead enterprises increased, market expectations of subsequent supply tightening grew, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises had some restocking demand at the early stage of the price rebound, but as lead prices rose further, considering the limited improvement in end-use consumption, their procurement enthusiasm declined again, and transactions for high-priced cargoes turned quiet. The overall market maintained a pace of purchasing as needed.