Futures Prices Consolidate under Pressure at High Levels, while the Off-Season Suppresses Upside Room for Spot Prices [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

Published: Aug 7, 2026 09:07

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[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Under Pressure and Consolidating at High Levels, Off-Season Suppresses Upside Room for Spot Prices] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2610 contract opened at 23,430 yuan/mt, fluctuated within a range of 23,380–23,475 yuan/mt, closed at 23,465 yuan/mt, up 0.30%. During the session, it consolidated around the average price line in a seesaw battle, edged up slightly in the late session; trading volume decreased MoM......

8.7 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment

Futures: Overnight, the 2610 aluminum alloy contract opened at 23,430 yuan/mt, traded in a range of 23,380–23,475 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,465 yuan/mt, up 0.30%. The intraday price consolidated around the average price line amid a tug of war, and edged up in late trading. Trading volume contracted from the previous day, while open interest increased slightly, with funds entering gradually. The 4-hour uptrend remains intact, with resistance at the previous high of 23,540 yuan/mt and solid support at 23,380 yuan/mt. In the short term, the market is expected to consolidate on a strong note at high levels.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily: According to SMM data, on August 6, the theoretical premium of SMM ADC12 spot price over the closing price of the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2610) at 10:15 was .

Warrant Daily: SHFE data showed that on August 6, total registered cast aluminum alloy warrants were 17,284 mt, down 90 mt from the previous trading day.

Aluminum Scrap: Yesterday, the SMM A00 spot aluminum price closed at 23,800 yuan/mt, up another 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Domestic aluminum scrap prices remained largely steady as market participants adopted a wait-and-see stance, with only some grades in parts of east China edging up slightly. On the price spread between primary and scrap aluminum: On August 6, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan was about 2,240 yuan/mt, and the price difference between A00 aluminum and shredded aluminum tense scrap was about 1,030 yuan/mt. Secondary aluminum alloy and its downstream demand weakened marginally, combined with high inventories of wrought aluminum alloy raw materials such as doors and windows in Henan and other regions, the transmission mechanism of aluminum scrap prices was hindered, and the momentum to follow the rally was clearly insufficient.

Silicon Metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was around 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded silicon metal futures contract was affected by news of production cuts on the supply side and bullish PV anti-involution sentiment, and trended stronger. Silicon enterprises’ quotes were generally stable, with a strong willingness to sell. Focus on the impact of variables on the short-term price spike, and watch for resistance at silicon enterprises’ selling intentions.

Markets Outside China: Currently, overseas ADC12 offers are at $3,050–3,190/mt, with the immediate import loss holding at around 827 yuan/mt.

Summary: On Thursday, ADC12 market quotes were mainly stable. As aluminum prices rose, cost support strengthened further, and enterprises’ willingness to hold prices firm increased somewhat. However, constrained by limited recovery in end-use demand, most enterprises still chose to wait and see, and price adjustments remained relatively restrained. Meanwhile, the futures premium widened, and recently, inquiry activity from spot-futures arbitrage traders has noticeably picked up. Some traders have already begun to gradually purchase, and the overall market trading atmosphere has improved compared to the previous period. In the short term, given the strong cost support and still mediocre demand, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in a narrow range.

[Data Source Disclaimer: All data other than public information are processed by SMM based on public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are for reference only. They do not constitute investment advice.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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