Futures
LME: The three-month LME tin contract closed at $57,000/mt in electronic trading on Wednesday, August 5, up about $1,170, or +2.10%, after hitting an intraday high near $57,200. Against a backdrop of mild gains in zinc, aluminum, and copper, tin once again led the gains among base metals, easily breaking through the $57,000 resistance and reaching a new high for the current uptrend.
China (Aug 5 daytime session → Aug 6 01:00 night session): SHFE tin 2609 contract closed at 434,030 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up 1.56%. In the night session at 01:00 on Aug 6, the 2609 contract settled at 438,200 yuan/mt, up 7,340, or +1.70%, after opening at 433,510, with a high of 438,930 and a low of 433,350. Open interest stood at 65,727 lots, with total open interest around 112,000 lots. Bulls aggressively added positions during the night session, and the 430,000 level has shifted from a "contested level" to a "strong support zone."
Reference for Aug 6 morning session opening: The 2609 contract is expected to open in the 437,500–440,000 yuan/mt range. The night session closing price of 438,000 serves as the new short-term pivot, while 435,000 (below the night session average price of 436,540) becomes the first pullback support. If the morning session holds above 439,000, the 440,000 round number will be the next target.
Inventory:
• LME tin inventory fell to 5,850 mt on Aug 5, down 20 mt on the day (vs. 5,870 mt on Aug 4), continuing its destocking trend and remaining at historically low levels. Cancelled warrants stood at 790 mt, accounting for 13.5%, as deliverable supply outside China continues to tighten.
• SHFE tin weekly inventory dropped to 5,286 mt, a weekly decline of 170 mt. Combined LME and SHFE tin inventory fell below 11,300 mt, hitting a historical low.
Macro: ADP 44,000 disappoints + ISM "stagflation", September rate hike probability pulls back from 67% to 54%
(1) US July ADP private payrolls increased by only 44,000, far below expectations of 75,000 (65,000 in some surveys), with June revised down from 98,000 to 95,000, marking the weakest since January. Nearly all gains came from the service sector, while goods-producing jobs fell by 3,000.
(2) The July ISM services PMI came in at 54.1 (vs. expectations 54.5, prior 54.0), extending expansion to 25 consecutive months. However, the employment sub-index plunged back into contraction at 47.4, and the prices component reached 70.3, the highest in four months — a classic stagflationary signal of "weak employment + high prices".
(3) According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September pulled back to 54.4%–54.9% from 67% the previous trading day, while the odds of no change rose to around 45%. The US dollar index fell 0.2% to around 99.6, and COMEX gold surged 3.74% to above $4,300 — the "return of dovish trades" was the direct catalyst for the collective surge in nonferrous metals during the night session.
(4) But the hawks haven't subsided: Kashkari said "three rate hikes this year are not impossible," Cook reiterated "ready to hike if inflation doesn't cool"; if the August 7 nonfarm payrolls also disappoint, a 54% chance of further decline; if nonfarm payrolls rebound above 100,000, the night session's surge is a false breakout.
(5) U.S.-Iran Hormuz negotiations show positive signals: Iran drops demand for full control of two-way shipping in the strait, U.S. says deal possible on August 5, WTI pulls back to $75/barrel — geopolitical premium fades in the short term, oil drags down inflation, instead clearing an upward path for tin's "low inventory + ore tightness" main theme.
Fundamentals: Yinman full shutdown unresolved + Wa State 50% cap, supply elasticity is soldered shut
(1) Yinman Mining's mining, beneficiation and tailings are fully halted; impact to be quantified but not yet resolved. On July 30, the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau issued an additional "On-site Treatment Measures Decision Letter"; the mining system and beneficiation/tailings system are all shut down, and the 350,000 mt surface ore buffer is invalidated. A core tin-silver mine with 1.65 million mt/yr mining and beneficiation capacity, estimated impact on tin metal content at about 1,000 mt based on a 1–2 month short stoppage; if the investigation/rectification extends, the gap will widen further.
(2) Wa State rainy season tail still "50% cap": August sees the rainy season winding down, with slight improvement in mine drainage and transport, but the full-year production resumption ceiling is locked at 50% of pre-ban levels, full resumption postponed to 2027, monthly ore output hard to increase; June exports to China were only 6,393 mt in physical content, July imports basically flat MoM.
Spot Market
August 6 morning spot estimate: opening at 437,000–441,000 yuan/mt. But above 438,000 yuan, solder factories basically don't place orders; 410,000–415,000 yuan is the range where downstream is willing to post-price.
[Data Source Statement: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decision made by the client has nothing to do with Shanghai Metals Market.]
![Macro liquidity expectations and a weak spot market constrain each other, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract continuing to consolidate at highs [SMM Tin Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/SkvFp20251217171752.jpg)
