[SMM Steel] Black Sea Shipping Disruptions Push Up Freight Rates; Turkish Billet Imports Pivot Toward Overland

The domestic ore market in Liaodong was generally stable today. Buyers were cautious in their inquiries, purchasing only for immediate needs, but some sellers held back from selling and held prices firm, reluctant to accept offers below their psychological expectations. Both sides were in a stalemate and stood on the sidelines, with trading thin. Demand side, steel mills were mostly incurring losses and had a strong desire to bargain down prices. Combined with maintenance at some mills, demand weakened in phases, exerting strong restraint on ore prices. However, ROM supply remained tight, and in the absence of notable positive external drivers, local ore processors had no production resumption plans in the near term.

In the second quarter of 2026, coal volumes transported by major eastern US railroads CSX and Norfolk Southern increased by 5% and 4%, respectively. However, their domestic coal shipments fell by 2% and 8%, while export volumes rose by 12% and 25%. The figures show that growth in US coal transportation was driven mainly by overseas demand rather than domestic power-sector consumption. Although the US government has introduced measures to support coal, including regulatory rollbacks and efforts to delay coal-plant retirements, coal consumption for electricity generation remained below year-earlier levels from January through May as natural gas and solar continued to displace coal. Weak domestic demand is likely to limit upside in US thermal coal prices, while stronger exports may provide some support to Appalachian thermal and metallurgical coal. However, increased US export supply could also limit gains in international coal prices.

A worker believed to be in his 50s died after being struck by a truck at the United Wambo open-cut coal mine in New South Wales, Australia. The mine, located about 23 kilometres west of Singleton, is jointly operated by Glencore and Peabody. Mining operations have been suspended while police, regulators and union safety representatives investigate the incident, with a report to be prepared for the coroner. A prolonged shutdown could reduce near-term coal output and provide some support to related coal markets. However, no information has been provided on the duration of the suspension, production losses or the coal grades affected, making it too early to assess the impact on thermal coal, coking coal or prices.