SMM August 5:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2608 contract were quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt to 240 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 180 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2608 contract fell initially before rising. Opening at 107,140 yuan/mt, the price fell after opening, touching a low of 106,800 yuan/mt intraday. After stabilizing, the price started to rise, reaching a high of 107,300 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the contract mostly traded between 107,200 yuan/mt and 107,270 yuan/mt, closing at 107,230 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between front-month and next-month contracts was between 80 yuan/mt and 180 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin of SHFE copper against the 2608 contract was at a loss of 1,430 yuan/mt to 1,370 yuan/mt.
During the day, the sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.1, up 0.1 from the previous day, and the purchase sentiment was 2.88, edging down 0.03 from the previous day. Historical data can be found in the database. During the day, suppliers continuously lowered their offer prices. Brands such as Tiefeng and Zhongtiaoshan Zijin reduced their premiums from 170–180 yuan/mt in the early morning session to 110–120 yuan/mt in the second session. Supply of high-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper was scarce, so their offers remained firm. Only some Guixi and Jintun large plates of high-quality copper were available, offered at premiums of 200–250 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper from Myanmar was transacted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt. As the premium center of standard-quality copper declined overall, downstream enterprises’ willingness to purchase standard-quality copper increased somewhat. Non-registered copper was transacted at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the price center of SHFE copper further rose above 107,000 yuan/mt during the day, significantly suppressing downstream purchasing. The market mainly saw purchases based on rigid demand, but suppliers’ willingness to sell strengthened, and they continuously lowered offers during the day to facilitate transactions. As standard-quality copper prices pulled back, downstream purchase willingness improved somewhat, and some low-priced cargoes were gradually transacted. Meanwhile, available supply of high-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper remained scarce, and their relatively firm offers provided some support to spot premiums. Overall, against the backdrop of high copper prices suppressing demand and suppliers actively lowering prices to sell, spot prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center likely to stay weak, though improving transactions at lower prices may limit the extent of further premium pullback.
