Published: 3 Aug 2026, 17:30 BST
RBC’s high scenario keeps gold near $5,300 through 2027 as central-bank buying and stronger Asian investment demand cushion bullion on the downside.
The Gold price in US Dollars slipped back towards $4,037 on Monday after ending last week near $4,072, but analysts at RBC Capital Markets still see a route towards $5,300 under its bullish scenario.
The bank’s latest forecast puts gold at an average $5,132 in the third quarter, rising to $5,203 in the fourth quarter.
Its 2027 high case averages $5,296, with quarterly forecasts between $5,249 and $5,321.
RBC’s central scenario is more restrained, forecasting $4,558 this quarter, $4,370 in the fourth quarter and an average of $4,225 in 2027.
The bullish case rests partly on demand holding up better than the headline data suggest.
“In a YTD period that has seen a nearly $1,500/oz range for gold prices, Q2 ended with some notable dynamics,” RBC said.
Central banks bought 289 tonnes during the second quarter after a slower opening quarter, outpacing both jewellery demand and bar-and-coin purchases.
RBC said the official sector remained a “consistent positive undercurrent”, adding that Poland, Uzbekistan, China and Kazakhstan were the largest reported buyers this year.
Gold traded between roughly $3,963 and $4,202 over the past month before returning towards $4,070.
Investor demand in Asia is another important support.
RBC highlighted “underlying shifts in Asia towards investor products, at the detriment of consumer products like jewellery”, arguing that the move still “nets out positive for total demand”.
The bank added that Asian markets continue to dominate global bar-and-coin demand.
Gold Outlook: Official Buying Cushions the Downside
Exchange-traded fund demand weakened during the second quarter, but RBC noted that “Q3 has started off with inflows and YTD flows are positive”.
That helps explain why the bank’s high scenario remains well above current prices despite gold’s difficult year. XAU/USD is down around 5.7% in 2026 and continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
The price of Gold remains lower for the year after falling sharply from January’s peak above $5,500.
RBC’s low scenario still warns of substantial downside, with gold averaging $3,729 in the third quarter and $3,661 during 2027.
Its high case, however, keeps the prospect of $5,300 gold firmly alive if central-bank purchases remain strong and investment demand continues shifting towards bullion.
